Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South: match statistics
Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kelty Hearts played Queen of the South in League One (Scotland). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Kelty Hearts: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Queen of the South: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kelty Hearts scores 0.84 and concedes 1.84 goals per match. Queen of the South scores 1.55 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.67 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kelty Hearts 55%, Queen of the South 55%. Over 2.5: Kelty Hearts 55%, Queen of the South 52%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Queen of the South has higher xG: 1.38 vs 0.98. Kelty Hearts: 7.1 shots per match, Queen of the South: 11.0.
Match halves
Kelty Hearts: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.39. Queen of the South: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Kelty Hearts: 16-30 (7 goals). Queen of the South: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.67 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match favorites are the visitors, Queen of the South (4th) versus Kelty Hearts (10th); based on this I predict an away win. Offensively Queen average 1.33 goals on the road, while Kelty at home have only 0.47 goals; in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 7 goals versus the hosts’ 5. Chance quality also favors Queen: on average 9.07 shots and 3.93 on target per game with a 15% conversion, versus 7.2 shots and 3.47 on target for Kelty with a 6% conversion; xG is 1.18 for the visitors versus 1.01 for the hosts. Defensively Kelty concede 1.93 goals at home (xG against 1.55) and have 60% clean-sheetless matches, while Queen concede 1.4 goals away (xG against 1.32) and fail to score in only 33% of games, indicating an advantage for the visitors in efficiency and stability. Additionally Kelty have 0% home wins and in the last 5 matches collect 1.0 point on average versus 1.6 points per match for Queen, therefore I assessed probabilities as 15% for the home win, 25% for a draw and 60% for the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes based on a strong recent trend from both teams: BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5 meetings (4/5). Kelty Hearts posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and averages 1.69 goals scored while conceding 1.19 per game; Queen of the South has BTTS 47% and averages 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded, indicating both sides consistently create and concede chances. This is supported by xG values: attacking xG 1.57 vs 1.18 and xG against 1.33 vs 1.32, and shots on target 5.63 vs 3.93; in the last 5 matches the teams scored 5 and 7 goals and conceded 7 and 6 respectively. Given the league average BTTS of 51% and Kelty’s home clean sheet rate of only 25%, I estimate BTTS probability at approximately 72% versus 28% No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal goals averages are 1.69 for Kelty Hearts and 1.33 for Queen of the South, totaling 3.02 goals; an xG and opponent-defence based estimate gives about 1.45 for the home side and 1.25 for the visitors (2.70 total). Both teams have a very high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Kelty 88% and Queen 93%, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (90%). Signals for the 2.5 line are more balanced — seasonal Over 2.5 is 56% (Kelty) and 40% (Queen), and the league average goals is 2.66; my estimate of 2.70 provides a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (60%). Over 3.5 looks unlikely, as Over 3.5 occurs in only 31% and 27% of these teams’ matches, therefore Under 3.5 has a clear edge (70%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Kelty Hearts have a clear offensive edge: xG 1.57 versus Queen of the South’s 1.18, an average of 5.63 shots on target per game compared to 3.93, and a season goals average of 1.69 versus 1.33, indicating greater scoring potential for the hosts. The hosts led at the break in 6 matches (38%) with an average first-half goals of 0.63 vs the visitors’ 0.53, and their average second-half goals are 1.63 with average conceded after the break of 0.56 and a 50% win rate in second halves, so maintaining a lead is realistic. At the same time Kelty were trailing at half-time in 7 matches (44%) and scored 9 goals in minutes 46–60, which shows strong turnaround potential and explains the high likelihood of a comeback scenario (2/1). Considering the xG advantage, shot volume and ability to control the second half, the most probable and strongest signal is 1/1 (leading at half-time and winning Full-Time for Kelty Hearts).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kelty Hearts | Queen of the South | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Queen of the South is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.6 pts / match - Queen of the South
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Queen of the South is 85% better for: goals scored per match.
0.84 goals / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.55 goals / match - Queen of the South
Queen of the South is 43% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.84 goals / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.29 goals / match - Queen of the South
Kelty Hearts scores in 61% of matches (19 of 31 matches), while Queen of the South keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Queen of the South scores in 77% of matches (24 of 31 matches), while Kelty Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kelty Hearts
Over / Under - Queen of the South
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Queen of the South is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.42 pts / match - Queen of the South
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kelty Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Queen of the South - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kelty Hearts
Queen of the South
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Kelty Hearts | Liga | Queen of the South | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.67 | ▲ 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 51% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 52% | • 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 27% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 77% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 82% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Queen of the SouthYellow cardLawton Green
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Kelty Hearts 0 - 1 - 2 Queen of the South. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South?
The League One match finished Kelty Hearts 1:1 Queen of the South. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kelty Hearts and Queen of the South?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Kelty Hearts won 0, Queen of the South won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South?
Kelty Hearts score 0.84 goals per game on average and Queen of the South 1.55. The League One average is 2.67 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Kelty Hearts's matches and 55% of Queen of the South's.
What form are Kelty Hearts and Queen of the South in?
Over the last 5 games Kelty Hearts have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Queen of the South 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South?
The statistical background for Kelty Hearts vs Queen of the South — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.