Kilmarnock vs Hearts: match statistics
Hearts occupy the first place in the table and display significantly better form and quality than Kilmarnock, who are ranked 11th. The hosts have a disastrous home record with a 57% loss rate and only 21% wins, conceding an average of 1.79 goals per match. Hearts, on the other hand, win 57% of their away games, scoring an average of 1.71 goals and conceding only 1.07 goals per match. The difference in efficiency (13% vs 9%) and ball possession (53% vs 45%) further favors the visitors. The recent form of both teams (0.8 PPG for Kilmarnock vs 1.8 PPG for Hearts) and Hearts' positive away goal difference (+9) compared to the hosts' negative home balance (-8) indicate a clear advantage for the away team in this clash.
Kilmarnock vs Hearts: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kilmarnock played Hearts in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Kilmarnock: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Hearts: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kilmarnock scores 1.10 and concedes 2.07 goals per match. Hearts scores 1.79 and concedes 0.83. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kilmarnock 62%, Hearts 41%. Over 2.5: Kilmarnock 66%, Hearts 48%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Hearts has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.26. Kilmarnock: 10.9 shots per match, Hearts: 14.2.
Match halves
Kilmarnock: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.48. Hearts: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Kilmarnock: 31-45+ (10 goals). Hearts: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hearts occupy the first place in the table and display significantly better form and quality than Kilmarnock, who are ranked 11th. The hosts have a disastrous home record with a 57% loss rate and only 21% wins, conceding an average of 1.79 goals per match. Hearts, on the other hand, win 57% of their away games, scoring an average of 1.71 goals and conceding only 1.07 goals per match. The difference in efficiency (13% vs 9%) and ball possession (53% vs 45%) further favors the visitors. The recent form of both teams (0.8 PPG for Kilmarnock vs 1.8 PPG for Hearts) and Hearts' positive away goal difference (+9) compared to the hosts' negative home balance (-8) indicate a clear advantage for the away team in this clash.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kilmarnock | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1.8 pts / match - Hearts
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 63% better for: goals scored per match.
1.1 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 1.79 goals / match - Hearts
Hearts is 149% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.07 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 0.83 goals / match - Hearts
Kilmarnock scores in 72% of matches (21 of 29 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 52% (15 of 29 matches).
Hearts scores in 90% of matches (26 of 29 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
Over / Under - Hearts
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hearts is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1.69 pts / match - Hearts
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 66%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kilmarnock
Hearts
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Kilmarnock | Liga | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.17 | 2.68 | • 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 51% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 66% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 29% | ▲ 52% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 75% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 79% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kilmarnock 0 - 1 - 1 Hearts. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
The Premiership match finished Kilmarnock 1:0 Hearts. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and Hearts?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kilmarnock won 0, Hearts won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
Kilmarnock score 1.10 goals per game on average and Hearts 1.79. The Premiership average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Kilmarnock's matches and 41% of Hearts's.
What form are Kilmarnock and Hearts in?
Over the last 5 games Kilmarnock have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Hearts 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Kilmarnock vs Hearts: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.