Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor: match statistics

Kocaelispor have the home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring 2 goals and keeping a clean sheet. However, the hosts create a moderate number of chances, as reflected by their xG of 1.12, while Samsunspor allow opponents significantly better opportunities away from home, with an average xG against as high as 2.92. The visitors also won their only away match 2:0, but with just 0.68 xG and 6 shots per game, meaning the result was clearly better than the quality of the chances created. In their last five matches, Samsunspor have scored 8 goals but conceded the same number, whereas Kocaelispor have conceded only 5. Both teams have been effective in their respective home and away matches so far, but Kocaelispor’s higher shot volume, 11 compared with 6, along with the visitors’ weaker defensive metrics, points to the home side.

The stronger signal points towards BTTS - No, as both teams produced this scenario in only 20% of their last 5 matches, well below the league average of 56%. Kocaelispor scored just 0.8 goals per match during this period, while their average xG stood at 1.07, limiting confidence in them finding the net even despite playing at home. Samsunspor kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches so far, while the hosts failed to score in 50% of their games. The visitors are capable of scoring, having averaged 1.6 goals in their last 5 appearances, but their attacking xG of 1.19 does not provide a strong enough basis to expect an open match. The most likely outcome therefore remains one in which at least one team fails to score, particularly the hosts.

Kocaelispor have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last 5 matches, resulting in a low average of 1.8 goals per game. Samsunspor have played more openly, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, although their average attacking xG stands at 1.19 compared with the 1.16 xG allowed by Kocaelispor. The hosts have an xG of 1.07, while Samsunspor’s defense has allowed as much as 2.12 xG in their last five appearances, which points to an expectation of around 1.27 Kocaelispor goals. The total projection of 2.49 goals remains clearly below the 3.5 line, and Samsunspor have not gone above this line in any of their matches so far this season. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as even with the hosts’ elevated attacking potential, a scenario involving at least four goals would require a clear exceedance of both teams’ current metrics.

Samsunspor have a clearly superior season record: they have won 100% of their matches and average 2.0 goals per game, while Kocaelispor have not won a single match, concede 2.5 goals per game, and average just 0.5 points. The visitors held a lead at the break in 100% of their matches so far, whereas the hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in 50% of cases; additionally, Samsunspor have yet to concede before half-time. In their last five matches, the visitors were ahead at half-time 60% of the time, compared with just 20% for Kocaelispor, who averaged only 0.2 goals before the break. After half-time, Samsunspor have won every second half so far, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and keeping a clean sheet, while the hosts have lost the second half in 100% of cases, conceding an average of 1.5 goals. Although Kocaelispor’s xG stands at 1.35 compared with 0.68 for their opponents, Samsunspor’s finishing advantage is substantial: they convert 33% of their shots into goals, while the hosts convert just 11%, reinforcing the scenario of a Samsunspor lead at half-time and a full-time victory.