Kolding IF vs Hillerød: match statistics

Kolding IF hold a slight home advantage: they concede an average of 1.25 goals at home, while Hillerød allow opponents 2.00 goals per away match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.42 xG at their own stadium, whereas the visitors’ defence allows as much as 2.25 xG, which could prove decisive in terms of chance quality. Hillerød are, however, in better overall form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and posting a 10:4 goal difference, compared with Kolding’s 2 wins and an 8:6 goal difference. Away fixtures remain a problem for the visitors, as they have lost 75% of their matches and have not recorded a single victory, making a Kolding IF win marginally more likely. Both teams have failed to score in 50% of their respective home and away matches, which also increases the likelihood of a close, relatively low-scoring home win.

Kolding has recorded BTTS in 75% of its matches this season and in as many as 80% of its last five fixtures, indicating regular goals at both ends of the pitch. Hillerød has a lower season BTTS rate of 50%, but this has risen to 60% across its last five appearances, while the team averaged 2.0 goals per match during that period. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, while Hillerød concedes an average of 2.0 goals, so Kolding should have excellent conditions to find the net. The visitors’ attacking potential is supported by 5.75 shots on target per match and an xG of 1.44, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.67. The BTTS - Yes pick is stronger, although the risk comes from Hillerød failing to score in 50% of its league matches this season.

Kolding average 1.75 goals at home, while Hillerød concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match, clearly boosting the hosts’ attacking potential. Chance-quality metrics also point towards goals: Kolding’s average xG stands at 1.55, while Hillerød allow opponents 2.25 xG. In their last five matches, both teams have shown strong attacking efficiency, scoring 1.6 and 2.0 goals per match respectively, with Over 2.5 goals landing in 80% of Kolding’s matches and 60% of Hillerød’s. At the same time, Hillerød have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their away matches, while Kolding have conceded in 75% of their home games, making a scenario with at least two goals highly likely. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as it combines a high expected total of 3.15 goals with significantly lower risk than the 2.5 and 3.5 lines.

Kolding IF has a more pronounced home profile, averaging 1.75 goals, while Hillerød concede as many as 2.00 goals per away match. The hosts have won 50% of their home fixtures, whereas the visitors are yet to record an away victory and have lost 75% of such matches. At half-time, both teams were leading in 50% of their matches in the analysed sample; however, Kolding averages 1.00 goal after the break and have not lost a second half. Hillerød are currently enjoying a good run, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but their away defensive record and average of 1.50 goals conceded after half-time point to a home advantage. The most likely scenario is therefore that Kolding take the lead at the break and maintain it until the final whistle.