Kongsvinger vs Lyn: match statistics

Kongsvinger are exceptionally strong at home: they win 78% of their matches, score an average of 3.00 goals per game, and have never finished a home match without scoring. The hosts also create significantly better chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.92 compared with Lyn’s 1.43. They additionally record 15.89 shots and 6 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 11 and 4.5, respectively. Lyn lose as many as 50% of their away matches, score just 1.38 goals on average, and fail to find the net in 25% of such outings. Both teams have been prolific recently — Kongsvinger scored 26 goals in five matches, while Lyn netted 16 — but the hosts won 4 of those 5 games and have a considerably stronger home profile. Kongsvinger’s defence allows opponents an average xG of 1.47, lower than Lyn’s away figure of 1.86, which further supports a home win in a match featuring several goals.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by very strong current scoring form: Kongsvinger have averaged 5.2 goals in their last five matches, while Lyn have averaged 3.2. Over the same period, both teams have regularly allowed opponents chances, conceding 1.8 and 1.6 goals per match respectively, while BTTS landed in 100% of Kongsvinger’s last five matches and 80% of Lyn’s. The hosts have an exceptionally poor clean-sheet record, at just 10%, while their opponents create an average of 1.43 xG, which should give Lyn a realistic chance of scoring. Kongsvinger, in turn, score an average of 1.8 goals at home, while Lyn concede 1.63 away from home, and both teams average 4.5 shots on target per match. The seasonal 50% BTTS rate for both sides lowers confidence in the prediction, but recent results, the league’s high scoring rate of 3.85 goals per match, and the hosts’ defensive numbers clearly tilt the assessment towards a Goal/Goal scenario.

Kongsvinger average 1.80 goals, while Lyn concede 1.63, and the hosts have a very weak defense, averaging 2.50 goals conceded per match. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures: 1.51 for Kongsvinger and 1.43 for Lyn, with the opponents’ xG conceded standing at 1.86 and 1.78, respectively. In their last five matches, both teams recorded a high percentage of games with at least three goals: 100% for Kongsvinger and 80% for Lyn. Across the entire season, the 1.5-goal line was also surpassed in 90% of Kongsvinger’s matches and 75% of Lyn’s games. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest pick, as just two goals are required for the bet to land, while the defensive profiles of both teams and their current form clearly point towards an open game.

Lyn have a strong first-half signal: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 80% of games, scoring an average of 2.2 goals before half-time, while Kongsvinger conceded just 0.4 goals during that period. Over the course of the season, the visitors have also rarely been behind at half-time, losing the first half in only 13% of matches, whereas the hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 40% of their games. Kongsvinger have a clear problem after the break, averaging just 0.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, and losing the second half in 80% of matches. Lyn score 0.63 goals per game after half-time and have shown greater defensive efficiency across the season, recording clean sheets in 38% of matches compared with 10% for the hosts. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is 2/2, with the visitors leading at the break and securing the win at full-time.