Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: match statistics

Konyaspor is the favorite for this match and I tip a home win (1). At home Konyaspor generates on average 1.55 xG, attempts 14.29 shots per match of which 4.07 are on target, translating to 1.14 goals per game; Fatih away has 1.21 xG, 10.79 shots (3.43 on target) and only 0.86 goals per match. Defensively the hosts also look superior — Konyaspor concedes on average 1.07 goals at home with 0.96 xG against, while Fatih away concedes 2.00 goals on average with 1.68 xG against. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 goals each, but Konyaspor collects on average 2.2 points in the last 5 games versus 2.0 for Fatih; additionally Fatih have lost 79% of away fixtures this season and have no clean sheets (0%), whereas Konyaspor have 36% clean sheets at home. Considering better xG (1.55 vs 1.21), higher possession (56% vs 46%) and advantages in shots and defense, I assign approximately a 60% probability to a home win, 25% to a draw and 15% to an away win.

Statistical analysis supports a Both Teams To Score scenario – Fatih Karagümrük has a season BTTS rate of 64% and 0% clean sheets away, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match. Konyaspor, despite a season BTTS of 36% and averaging 1.0 goals scored, has a home BTTS of 60% in the last 5 matches and scores 1.4 goals per home game, indicating offensive improvement. xG confirms mutual scoring opportunities – attacking xG is 1.13 (Konyaspor) and 1.21 (Fatih), while xG against are 1.54 and 1.68 respectively, meaning both teams allow a significant number of chances. Additionally, a similar shot volume 10.64 vs 10.79 and shots on target 3.21 vs 3.43, plus a league BTTS level of 55%, reinforce the 'yes' signal; therefore I rate BTTS at 65% and recommend the 'BTTS - Yes' selection.

The combined average xG and xG conceded project: (1.13 + 1.68)/2 = 1.41 for Konyaspor and (1.21 + 1.54)/2 = 1.37 for Fatih, totaling 2.78 expected goals. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 are 79% for the home side and 86% for the away side, and in the last 5 matches both teams have scored an average of 1.4 goals each, therefore I assign an 83% probability to Over 1.5 (17% Under). The 2.5 line is more ambiguous: Konyaspor have Over 2.5 in 29% of games, Fatih in 64% (average ~47%), and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred for the home team in 40% and the away team in 20%, so I give Over 2.5 a 48% probability and Under 52%. Over 3.5 is uncommon (21% season rate for both teams), although the teams concede on average 1.43 and 2.00 goals and collectively produce around 10.7 shots with ~3.3 on target (10.64/10.79 and 3.21/3.43), so I rate Over 3.5 at 22% (Under 78%). I conclude the strongest signal in the data favors Over 1.5 at the 1.5 line, since the 2.78 expected goals and high seasonal rates of 79% vs 86% support at least two goals in this match.

Konyaspor holds a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 36% of matches and average 0.64 first-half goals, whereas Fatih led at the break in only 7% and average 0.29 first-half goals. The visitors concede an average of 2.00 goals per match versus 1.43 for the hosts and have a high loss rate of 79%, while Konyaspor wins 29% of their games, indicating a higher likelihood of a home victory. xG models are similar (xG 1.13 for Konyaspor vs 1.21 for Fatih), but Fatih have a higher xG against (1.68 vs 1.54) and a lower shot conversion rate (8% versus 9%), so their created chances may be less efficient. Additionally, Konyaspor kept first-half clean sheets in 64% of cases, so the most probable scenario is the hosts leading at the break and maintaining the win until full-time (HT/FT 1/1).