Koper vs Olimpija: match statistics

Koper sit 2nd, while Olimpija are fourth, and the hosts have won 4 of their 8 league matches, suffering just one defeat. In their last five games, Koper have collected 10 points, recording 3 wins, a draw and a loss, while Olimpija have amassed 8 points. At home, Koper create more chances, averaging 16 shots and an xG of 1.95, compared with Olimpija’s 12.67 shots and xG of 1.50 away from home. The strongest argument against the visitors is their away attack: they have failed to score in any of their three away matches and lost 67% of them. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Koper have drawn both of their home games so far, but their edge in chance creation and Olimpija’s very poor away finishing make the hosts the more convincing side.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Koper recorded BTTS in only 20% of league matches, while Olimpija did so in 0% of their games. The visitors have not yet scored, averaging 0 goals per match, with a shot conversion rate of 0%, and failed to find the net in 100% of their appearances so far. Koper kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches and conceded just 0.4 goals per game across their last 5 fixtures. Current scoring form also supports a lower-scoring outcome, with the hosts recently averaging 0.6 goals per match and Olimpija 1.0, alongside BTTS rates of just 0% and 20%, respectively. Although Olimpija's xG over their last five matches stands at 1.68, Koper's solid defense and the visitors' very poor finishing so far clearly increase the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to under 3.5 goals, as this line has been maintained in 100% of the teams’ matches to date. Koper concede just 0.6 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches, while they have conceded only 2 goals in their last five appearances. Olimpija have yet to score in away matches and have not exceeded 1.5 goals in any of them, although their average xG stands at 1.50. The hosts create plenty of chances, averaging 2.10 xG and 6.2 shots on target, but their conversion rate is only 7%, which limits the risk of a high-scoring game. Recent goalscoring form is also cautious: Koper have scored 3 goals and Olimpija 5 in their last five matches, so the projected 1.80 goals clearly supports under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Koper win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their matches, while Olimpija were level at the break in as many as 67% of their away games. The first halves of both teams are very low-scoring: Koper average 0.4 goals, Olimpija have failed to score any, and the visitors’ combined average before the break is just 0.33 goals. After half-time, Koper improve significantly, averaging 0.8 goals and winning the second half in 60% of their matches, while Olimpija have still failed to score in the second halves. The hosts also have a much stronger home record: 2.0 points per game, a 60% win rate and only 0.6 goals conceded, compared with Olimpija’s 0% away win rate and an average of 0.0 goals scored. The visitors’ last five matches look more solid, as they averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, so a draw in the final result remains a relevant alternative; however, Koper’s second-half advantage supports the X/1 HT/FT outcome.