Koper vs Radomlje: match statistics

Koper sits 3rd in the table while Radomlje are 10th, which already indicates a class gap. The hosts have won all 5 of their last matches (5/5), scoring 9 and conceding 3, i.e. averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Radomlje over their last five have a 2 wins and 3 losses record (2/5) with a goal record of 7–9 (1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded). Defence is key — Radomlje have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches compared to 3 conceded by Koper, giving the hosts a clear advantage in game management. The difference in points efficiency is also significant: Koper registers 3.0 points per game over the last 5, while Radomlje average 1.2 points per game, therefore I tip a home victory.

In the last 5 matches Koper scored 9 goals (avg. 1.8 per match) and conceded 3 (0.6), while Radomlje netted 7 (1.4) and conceded 9 (1.8). BTTS rate in the last 5 fixtures is 40% for Koper and 80% for Radomlje, indicating that the visitors are primarily involved in matches where Goal/Goal occurs. xG shows 1.34 xG for Koper with 1.47 xG against them and 1.18 xG for Radomlje with 1.90 xG against, suggesting Radomlje both creates and allows many opportunities, while Koper’s actual return of 9 goals aligns with that output. Although the league-wide BTTS indicator is low (20%) and clean sheet expected stats point to solid defenses, the home side’s form (5 wins) and the visitors’ weaker defense (9 conceded in 5) increase the probability of both teams scoring, hence the selection BTTS - Yes (approx. 65% vs 35%).

In the last 5 matches Koper averaged 1.8 goals while Radomlje averaged 1.4, totaling 3.2 goals per game; concurrently, 5-match xG is 1.34 for Koper and 1.18 for Radomlje, combined 2.52 xG. Koper at home averages 9.0 shots and 2.0 on target, and their home xG is 1.44, indicating the ability to create scoring opportunities. Radomlje conceded 9 goals in their last five matches (1.8 per game) and have an aggregate recent xG against of 1.9, which increases the likelihood of goals for the hosts. Koper form: 'wwwww', Radomlje form: 'wllwl', and the seasonal rate of home matches with over 1.5 goals is 100%, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. I adopt expected xG of 1.34 for the home side and 1.18 for the visitors (sum 2.52), therefore I rate Over 1.5 at ~95%, Over 2.5 at ~60% and Over 3.5 at ~20%.

Koper is the clear favorite: in the last 5 matches they won 100% of games (5 of 5) and led at the break in 80% of cases (4 of 5), which strongly indicates a home lead at half-time. In attack the hosts averaged 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 (vs 1.4 for Radomlje) and 1.0 goals on average by half-time (vs 0.8 for the visitors), while the hosts’ xG is 1.44 compared to 0.00 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. Defensively Koper also performs better – conceding an average of 0.6 goals per game in the last 5, whereas Radomlje concede 1.8 on average, and the hosts average 9 shots and 2 on target per game, which supports maintaining a lead. On this basis the most likely scenario is Koper leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) — I assign it a 52% probability, while alternatives (1/X 14%, 1/2 6%) are less likely due to the hosts’ statistical advantage.