KTP vs MP: match statistics

KTP are the leaders of the home table and have won 18 of their 24 matches this season, while MP have recorded just 8 victories and 12 defeats. The hosts are in excellent form: they have won all of their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1, whereas MP have registered 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats over the same period. At home, KTP average 2.08 goals per match, with an xG of 1.81, while MP score only 1.00 goal away from home and fail to find the net in 33% of matches. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance creation: they average 14.5 shots and 5.92 shots on target per match, compared with 10.75 and 4.08 for the visitors. MP lose as many as 67% of their away matches and concede an average of 1.42 goals on the road, making another victory for the in-form KTP the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is primarily weakened by KTP’s excellent defensive form over their last five matches: the hosts have conceded just 1 goal, averaging 0.2 per game, and both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. MP scores an average of 1.0 goal per season and fail to score in as many as 33% of matches, which, given their opponent’s current form, significantly limits their chances of finding the net. The seasonal BTTS figures are also not particularly high, standing at 50% for KTP and 42% for MP, compared with the league average of 44%. Although MP have recently created chances worth 1.48 xG, KTP are on a run of five consecutive wins and are simultaneously allowing opponents very little, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal selection, which means that at least one team will not score—it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

KTP are in excellent form, having won their last five matches and scoring an average of 2.2 goals in that run, while MP conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. At the same time, the hosts have allowed just 0.2 goals per match across their last five appearances, significantly limiting the prospects of a high-scoring performance from the visitors. Seasonal xG indicators point to a match producing around 2.45 goals: KTP average 1.41 xG and MP 1.31, yet both teams have seen Over 3.5 goals land in only 25% of their matches. Furthermore, 75% of each team’s games finished with a maximum of three goals, making Under 3.5 the outcome best supported by the data.

KTP have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding just 0.2, while MP conceded an average of 1.6 goals over the same period. The hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five matches and did not concede before half-time on any occasion, whereas MP were trailing at half-time in 60% of those matches, conceding an average of 1.6 goals in the first half. KTP also have a clearly superior points record across the season, averaging 1.50 points per match compared with MP’s 0.83, while the visitors have lost 67% of their matches. After the interval, KTP maintain their superior form, recently scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 0.2, whereas MP score only 0.4 goals. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT outcome of 1/1, with KTP taking the lead before half-time and converting it into a full-time victory.