Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy: match statistics

I back an away win ('2') because LNZ Cherkasy holds a clear statistical advantage. LNZ sit 2nd with 17 wins this season versus Kudrivka’s 6 wins in 13th. Defensively the visitors are markedly superior — they concede 0.54 goals per away match and keep clean sheets in 69% of away games, while the hosts concede 1.5 at home with only a 14% clean sheet rate; in the last 5 matches LNZ conceded 2 goals versus Kudrivka’s 7. Offensively LNZ create higher-quality chances: 12.85 shots and 4.08 on target away, xG 1.42 and an average of 1.62 goals, compared to the hosts’ 9.14 shots, 2.93 on target, xG 1.02 and 1.43 goals; although Kudrivka have a higher shot conversion (16% vs 13% for LNZ), their fewer chances limit their prospects. Additionally, over the last 5 matches Kudrivka earned 0.8 points per game (1-1-3) while LNZ earned 1.2 points per game (1-3-1), which confirms greater stability and justifies rating them as favorites.

Seasonal indicators point against both teams scoring: BTTS - Yes stands at only 20% for the home side and 23% for the away side, well below the league average of 44%. Both teams often keep a clean sheet — home clean sheets in 67% of matches, away clean sheets in 69% — a strong argument against BTTS. The last 5 matches show a discrepancy: the home team has 60% BTTS and concedes on average 1.4 goals, while the away team has 20% BTTS and concedes just 0.4 goals per game, indicating a solid away defense. Although xG suggests both sides create chances (xG 1.56 for home vs 1.42 for away) and a similar number of shots on target (4.33 vs 4.08), the dominant seasonal clean sheet rates and low BTTS percentages favor a No Goal scenario; therefore rated 30% for Yes and 70% for No.

The xG-based model shows the home side with xG for 1.56, the visitors 1.42, and xG against of 1.09 (Kudrivka) and 0.94 (LNZ), yielding estimated goals of 1.25 for Kudrivka and 1.26 for LNZ (total 2.51). Seasonal metrics indicate a high number of clean sheets: 67% for Kudrivka and 69% for LNZ, while BTTS occurs in only 20% and 23% of matches, limiting the probability of a very high scoreline. Matches over 2.5 goals occur in 20% (Kudrivka) and 38% (LNZ) of games, averaging ~29%, whereas the 1.5 line is exceeded in 53% and 62% of fixtures (average ~57.5%). The strongest signal is under 3.5 — season under 3.5 rates are 87% (Kudrivka) and 85% (LNZ), and the projected total of 2.51 is clearly below the 3.5 threshold. Therefore I recommend backing Under 3.5 as the safest option, while recognizing that Over 1.5 has moderate chances and the 2.5 line remains marginally valueable.

Kudrivka led at the break in 7 of 15 matches (47%), and half-time draws occurred in 33% of the home side’s games, so the most common half-time state is a home lead. Nonetheless, LNZ is stronger over full matches: they average 1.62 goals per game versus the home side’s 1.13, and LNZ’s points per game are 2.23 compared to Kudrivka’s 1.87, giving them an edge in final results. The second half is decisive — LNZ score an average of 1.08 goals after the break versus just 0.53 for the home team and win the second half in 62% of matches, while the hosts win the second half only 33% of the time. Additionally, LNZ show higher finishing efficiency (conversion rate 13% vs 9% for the hosts), despite the hosts having a higher xG (1.56 vs 1.42 for LNZ), which suggests the visitors are more clinical with lower xG. For these reasons the most likely and strongest signal is the 1/2 scenario — the hosts may lead at the break (47%), but LNZ have the statistical profile (1.08 second-half goals and 62% second-half win rate) to execute a turnaround and win the match.