Kuressaare vs Trans: match statistics

Kuressaare have a clear home advantage: they average 1.17 goals per match at home, while Trans score just 0.33 goals per away game. The visitors have lost 83% of their away fixtures and concede as many as 2.92 goals per match on the road, with a negative goal difference of -31. The hosts are also in better recent form, winning 3 of their last five matches, scoring 16 goals and losing only once. Trans have improved their results lately, scoring 11 goals in five matches, but they failed to score in 75% of their away games and have a win rate of just 8%. Kuressaare are not particularly solid defensively, allowing opponents an xG of 1.88, but Trans’s weak away attack and low 3% finishing efficiency support a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Trans’s seasonal attacking efficiency: the visitors score only 0.33 goals per match on average and have failed to score in 75% of their games. BTTS has occurred in just 25% of Trans’s matches, well below Kuressaare’s 54% and the league average of 59%. Kuressaare concede an average of 1.69 goals per match, but Trans have a shot conversion rate of only 3% and record 3.08 shots on target per game, limiting the visitors’ chances of exploiting their opponent’s weaknesses. The last five matches provide some counterevidence, with Trans averaging 2.2 goals and Kuressaare 3.2, yet the visitors’ BTTS rate during this period was still only 20%. The hosts have a solid basis for scoring against a Trans defence conceding an average of 2.92 goals, but it is more likely that at least one team—primarily the visitors—will fail to find the net.

Kuressaare provides a solid offensive foundation: its average xG stands at 1.60, while Trans concedes as many as 2.92 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in only 8% of games. The hosts are also in excellent scoring form, having netted 16 goals in their last 5 matches, while Trans has scored 11 times over the same period. The 1.5 line has been covered in 92% of Kuressaare’s matches and 75% of Trans’s, providing a clearly stronger signal than higher goal lines. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% and 67% of their respective matches, but Trans’s poor season scoring rate of 0.33 goals per match increases the risk of the game ending with only two goals. Therefore, the safest edge remains Over 1.5 goals, supported by a forecast of 2.90 goals in the match.

Kuressaare have a clear full-season advantage: they average 1.08 goals per match, while Trans concede as many as 2.92, and the visitors have won only 8% of their matches, compared with 83% defeats. The signal for a home lead at the break is reinforced by recent form, with Kuressaare leading at half-time in 60% of their last five matches and scoring an average of 1.8 goals before the interval. Trans are particularly weak after the break: they average no goals scored, concede 1.83, and lost the second half in 92% of matches. Kuressaare score an average of 0.54 goals after half-time and average 1.15 points in the second half, compared with Trans's mere 0.08, which supports the likelihood of them maintaining or extending their lead. Although both teams have recently had a lead at half-time in 60% of their matches, Trans's significantly weaker season-long attacking output, at just 0.33 goals per match, makes 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.