Kuressaare vs Vaprus: match statistics
Kuressaare vs Vaprus: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kuressaare played Vaprus in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 21 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Kuressaare: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Vaprus: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kuressaare scores 1.29 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Vaprus scores 0.86 and concedes 2.43. League average: 3.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kuressaare 57%, Vaprus 57%. Over 2.5: Kuressaare 71%, Vaprus 57%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Kuressaare has higher xG: 1.46 vs 0.97. Kuressaare: 11.1 shots per match, Vaprus: 6.9.
Match halves
Kuressaare: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.86. Vaprus: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Kuressaare: 61-75 (4 goals). Vaprus: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.11 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1). Kuressaare averages 2.00 goals per home match (9 goals this season, 6 in the last 5), averages 12.33 shots per game with 6.0 on target and has an average xG of 1.59, while Vaprus on the road averages only 0.75 goals per match, xG 0.75, 5.0 shots and 1.75 SOT. Defensively the hosts concede 1.67 goals at home on average, whereas the visitors concede 3.25 goals away, and Vaprus has a 100% away loss rate and only 1 win this season. In the last 5 matches Kuressaare’s form is 'lllww' with 1.2 points per game, Vaprus 'lllld' with 0.2 points per game; both teams have 0% clean sheets. The gap in quantity and quality of chances (12.33 vs 5.0 shots and 6.0 vs 1.75 SOT) together with higher xG and greater efficiency for the hosts justify an estimated ~70% probability of a Kuressaare victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability because Vaprus has BTTS in 75% of away matches, while Kuressaare has BTTS in 60% of their last 5 games versus a league average of 56%, favoring both teams scoring. Kuressaare at home average 1.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded (in the last 5: 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded), with an attacking xG of 1.32 per game, so the hosts consistently create chances. Vaprus away average 0.75 goals scored and concede 3.25, with an attacking xG of 0.75 and xG conceded 1.96, indicating games with chances at both ends. Kuressaare register on average 3.67 shots on target versus Vaprus’s 1.75, and 10.0 versus 5.0 total shots; despite fewer opportunities Vaprus have a higher conversion rate (15% vs 10%), so they can capitalize on chances. Additionally, Vaprus have 0% clean sheets away, while Kuressaare’s seasonal home BTTS is 33%, so Vaprus’s weak defense and the hosts’ offensive activity shift the edge to Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and goal averages forecasts a total of approximately 2.84 goals: Kuressaare ~1.64 (home xG 1.32 and xG conceded vs Vaprus 1.96 => average 1.64), Vaprus ~1.20 (away xG 0.75 and xG conceded vs Kuressaare 1.64 => average 1.20). Seasonal indicators support this direction: Kuressaare has Over 1.5 in 67% of matches, Vaprus in 100%, while Over 2.5 occurs this season for Kuressaare in 33% and for Vaprus in 75%; the league records an average of 3.11 goals per game. Additionally, the hosts create more opportunities (on average 10 shots and 3.67 shots on target per game versus 5.0 and 1.75 for Vaprus) and in the last 5 fixtures Kuressaare scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) versus 2 (0.4) for Vaprus. Vaprus have defensive issues (conceding 3.25 goals on average this season and xG against 1.96) and away BTTS is 75%, which increases the risk of a higher goal count. On this basis the best pick is Over 2.5 (estimated ~68% for over); for a more conservative bet Over 1.5 looks even safer (~88%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I predict a Half-Time draw with Kuressaare winning Full-Time (X/1). The hosts clearly dominate in chance creation: xG 1.32 vs 0.75 for Vaprus, average shots 10.0 vs 5.0 and shots on target 3.67 vs 1.75. Vaprus have poor defense and form — they concede an average of 3.25 goals per match compared to Kuressaare’s 1.33, and Vaprus have 0.0 points per match with a 100% loss rate this season, which increases the hosts’ chances of a win. Half-Time statistics, however, indicate the possibility of a draw or an away lead: Kuressaare average 0.0 first-half goals vs 1.5 for Vaprus, and Vaprus have scored 6 HT goals, so a HT draw or Vaprus leading at the break is realistic. This aligns with Kuressaare’s tendency to score later — the hosts have one goal in minutes 61–75 and two goals in 76–90, and in second halves they have 67% of matches with at least one goal (>0.5), which favors a turnaround after the break. In the last five matches Kuressaare have won 2 of 5 (40% wins in the last 5) while Vaprus have won none (0%), therefore the most likely scenario is X/1, with an alternative 2/1 based on an early Vaprus lead and a later Kuressaare comeback.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kuressaare | Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kuressaare is 500% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Kuressaare · 0.2 pts / match - Vaprus
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kuressaare is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Kuressaare · 0.86 goals / match - Vaprus
Kuressaare is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Kuressaare · 2.43 goals / match - Vaprus
Kuressaare scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Vaprus keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
Vaprus scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kuressaare
Over / Under - Vaprus
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kuressaare - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Vaprus - second-half results
Concedes 1.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kuressaare
Vaprus
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Kuressaare | Liga | Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.29 | 3.11 | ▲ 3.29 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 57% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 63% | ▼ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 23% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 69% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Kuressaare 3 - 0 - 1 Vaprus. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
The Meistriliiga match finished Kuressaare 0:1 Vaprus. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kuressaare and Vaprus?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Kuressaare won 3, Vaprus won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
Kuressaare score 1.29 goals per game on average and Vaprus 0.86. The Meistriliiga average is 3.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Kuressaare's matches and 57% of Vaprus's.
What form are Kuressaare and Vaprus in?
Over the last 5 games Kuressaare have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Vaprus 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kuressaare vs Vaprus?
The statistical background for Kuressaare vs Vaprus — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.