Larne vs Carrick Rangers: match statistics
Larne are displaying dominant form at home, sitting top of the table with an impressive record of 71% home wins and 71% clean sheets. The hosts have not lost a single home match this season, scoring an average of 1.93 goals while conceding just 0.36 per game. Carrick Rangers, despite decent form in their last five matches, show clear weaknesses in away games with a 38% loss rate and an average of 1.46 goals conceded per match. The difference in possession quality (57% vs 41%) and attacking efficiency (xG 1.8 vs 1.41) further favours the hosts. Considering Larne's flawless home run and their +22 home goal difference compared to Carrick's mere +2 away, a convincing home win is the most likely scenario.
Larne vs Carrick Rangers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Larne played Carrick Rangers in NIFL Premiership (Northern Ireland). The match was played on 20 February 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Larne: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Carrick Rangers: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Larne scores 1.79 and concedes 0.61 goals per match. Carrick Rangers scores 1.50 and concedes 1.61. League average: 2.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Larne 39%, Carrick Rangers 64%. Over 2.5: Larne 46%, Carrick Rangers 61%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Larne has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.35. Larne: 13.2 shots per match, Carrick Rangers: 9.9.
Match halves
Larne: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 1.00. Carrick Rangers: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.54.
Goals by minute
Larne: 76-90+ (16 goals). Carrick Rangers: 31-45+ (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NIFL Premiership: 2.87 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Larne are displaying dominant form at home, sitting top of the table with an impressive record of 71% home wins and 71% clean sheets. The hosts have not lost a single home match this season, scoring an average of 1.93 goals while conceding just 0.36 per game. Carrick Rangers, despite decent form in their last five matches, show clear weaknesses in away games with a 38% loss rate and an average of 1.46 goals conceded per match. The difference in possession quality (57% vs 41%) and attacking efficiency (xG 1.8 vs 1.41) further favours the hosts. Considering Larne's flawless home run and their +22 home goal difference compared to Carrick's mere +2 away, a convincing home win is the most likely scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Larne | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carrick Rangers is 63% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Larne · 2.6 pts / match - Carrick Rangers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Larne is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.79 goals / match - Larne · 1.5 goals / match - Carrick Rangers
Larne is 164% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.61 goals / match - Larne · 1.61 goals / match - Carrick Rangers
Larne scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while Carrick Rangers keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
Carrick Rangers scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while Larne keeps a clean sheet in 54% (15 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Larne
Over / Under - Carrick Rangers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Larne is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.71 pts / match - Larne · 1.43 pts / match - Carrick Rangers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Larne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carrick Rangers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +9 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Larne
Carrick Rangers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NIFL Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Larne | Liga | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.39 | 2.87 | ▲ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 51% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 55% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 54% | 26% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 77% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 78% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Larne 2 - 0 - 0 Carrick Rangers. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Larne vs Carrick Rangers?
The NIFL Premiership match finished Larne 2:3 Carrick Rangers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Larne and Carrick Rangers?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Larne won 2, Carrick Rangers won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Larne vs Carrick Rangers?
Larne score 1.79 goals per game on average and Carrick Rangers 1.50. The NIFL Premiership average is 2.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Larne's matches and 64% of Carrick Rangers's.
What form are Larne and Carrick Rangers in?
Over the last 5 games Larne have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Carrick Rangers 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Larne vs Carrick Rangers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Larne vs Carrick Rangers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.