Larne vs Coleraine: match statistics
Larne vs Coleraine: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Larne played Coleraine in NIFL Premiership (Northern Ireland). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
Larne: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Coleraine: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Larne scores 1.82 and concedes 0.65 goals per match. Coleraine scores 1.88 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Larne 41%, Coleraine 56%. Over 2.5: Larne 47%, Coleraine 56%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Coleraine has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.57. Larne: 12.5 shots per match, Coleraine: 13.7.
Match halves
Larne: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 1.00. Coleraine: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.18.
Goals by minute
Larne: 76-90+ (19 goals). Coleraine: 76-90+ (18 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NIFL Premiership: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Larne are top of the table (1st) with a record of 23 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses this season, while Coleraine sit 3rd with 21 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. At home Larne average 1.89 goals scored and concede only 0.56 per game, keep a clean sheet in 61% of matches and have a 67% win rate, whereas Coleraine away average 1.5 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, 28% clean sheets and a 44% win rate. Both teams register a similar number of shots (≈13.8 vs 13.7) and about 5.06 shots on target, but Larne convert at a higher rate (~14% conversion vs ~11% for Coleraine) and turn an xG of 1.64 into 1.89 goals, while Coleraine have an away xG of 1.68 but only 1.5 goals on average. In the last 5 matches Coleraine have won 4 times and average 2.6 points per game, whereas Larne have a run of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss averaging 2.0 points per game, so the visitors are slightly better in form; however the home defensive edge (~0.55 fewer goals conceded per game) and higher clean sheet rate favor Larne. Considering Larne’s 67% home win efficiency versus Coleraine’s 44% away and superior chance conversion, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 56% (Larne 56%, Coleraine 56%), and in the last 5 matches both record BTTS at 60%, indicating a persistent both-teams-to-score trend. Both sides generate similar xG values: Larne 1.7 vs Coleraine 1.68, with average shots 13.69 vs 13.72 and shots on target 6.19 vs 5.06, suggesting genuine scoring opportunities for both teams. At the same time, Larne keeps a clean sheet in 44% of home matches and concedes on average 0.75 goals per home game, while Coleraine fail to score in 22% of matches, which limits BTTS chances. Larne also has higher shot conversion 17% vs 11% for Coleraine and a home goals average of 2.31 vs 1.5 away, which increases the likelihood of a home goal. Overall, with balanced xG (~1.7/1.68), seasonal BTTS 56% and last 5 matches BTTS 60% for both teams, I favor the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario and estimate BTTS at 62% vs 38% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate Larne to score about 1.59 goals and Coleraine 1.26; total expected goals ~2.85. This is a compromise between xG (Larne 1.70, Coleraine 1.68) and seasonal goal averages (Larne 2.31 at home, Coleraine 1.50 away), adjusted for Larne’s higher finishing rate (17% vs 11%). Both teams often exceed 1.5 goals – season Over15 is 81% for Larne and 89% for Coleraine, while season Over25 is 63% and 50%, respectively, indicating a moderate probability for Over 2.5 goals. In the last 5 matches Larne scored 9 and conceded 4, Coleraine scored 8 and conceded 3, which supports the ~2.85 total goals expectation. A Poisson model with λ=2.85 yields ~78% for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (backing Over at line 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 (Larne leading at the break and winning) because Larne win 81% of home matches, scoring on average 2.31 goals and conceding 0.75, whereas Coleraine average 1.50 goals scored and 1.11 conceded away. Larne led at the break in 7 matches (44%), and both teams have similar first-half goal averages—0.69 for Larne versus 0.72 for Coleraine—so the opening period most often ends with a one-goal margin or a minimal lead for the home side. After the break Larne score an average of 1.63 goals and concede only 0.25, with their second-half form translating into a 75% win rate in that segment, increasing the likelihood they maintain the lead or secure the result in the home side’s favor. Despite similar xG figures (1.7 versus 1.68), Larne register more on-target shots (6.19 vs 5.06) and superior finishing efficiency (17% vs 11%), plus 13 goals scored in minutes 76–90 compared to Coleraine’s 5, which supports the HT/FT scenario of leading at the break and winning for the home team.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Larne | Coleraine | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Larne is 30% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Larne · 2 pts / match - Coleraine
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Larne is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.65 goals / match - Larne · 0.94 goals / match - Coleraine
Larne scores in 85% of matches (29 of 34 matches), while Coleraine keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Coleraine scores in 88% of matches (30 of 34 matches), while Larne keeps a clean sheet in 53% (18 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Larne
Over / Under - Coleraine
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Larne is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.79 pts / match - Larne · 1.56 pts / match - Coleraine
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Larne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Coleraine - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +16 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Larne
Coleraine
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NIFL Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Larne | Liga | Coleraine | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.47 | 2.85 | • 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 51% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 54% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 53% | 26% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 75% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Larne 2 - 0 - 1 Coleraine. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Larne vs Coleraine?
The NIFL Premiership match finished Larne 1:4 Coleraine. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Larne and Coleraine?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Larne won 2, Coleraine won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Larne vs Coleraine?
Larne score 1.82 goals per game on average and Coleraine 1.88. The NIFL Premiership average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Larne's matches and 56% of Coleraine's.
What form are Larne and Coleraine in?
Over the last 5 games Larne have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Coleraine 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Larne vs Coleraine?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Larne vs Coleraine: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.