Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington: match statistics
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Las Vegas Lights played Lexington in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Las Vegas Lights: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Lexington: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Las Vegas Lights scores 1.57 and concedes 2.14 goals per match. Lexington scores 0.86 and concedes 1.14. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Las Vegas Lights 86%, Lexington 43%. Over 2.5: Las Vegas Lights 57%, Lexington 43%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Lexington has higher xG: 1.31 vs 1.20. Las Vegas Lights: 9.3 shots per match, Lexington: 11.6.
Match halves
Las Vegas Lights: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.14. Lexington: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Las Vegas Lights: 61-75 (3 goals). Lexington: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win for Las Vegas Lights; at home they have 50% wins, 50% draws and 0% losses, scoring on average 1.0 goals and conceding only 0.5 goals per match. Their home xG is 1.41 versus an xG against of 0.86, and the hosts average 12.5 shots and 5.0 on target per game with a conversion rate of 8%. Lexington have no away wins (0%), draws account for 67% of results, and away the visitors average 0.33 goals per match and fail to score in 67% of their road games. The visitors have lower chance-creation (2.67 shots on target, conversion 4%) and a higher xG against (1.33) and concede on average 1.0 goal away, which limits their prospects. Considering the superior quality of chances and finishing of the home side alongside the visitors’ scoring issues, I rate the probability at 62% for a home win, 23% for a draw and 15% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In the last 5 matches the home side had BTTS in 80% of cases and the away side in 60%, which is a strong, current signal for both teams to score. Although for the season the away team has only 33% BTTS and averages 0.33 goals per game (67% of matches without scoring), their last 5 shows improvement: 6 goals (1.2 per game) and average xG 1.51 versus the hosts' 1.37. The home team have scored 7 goals in their last 5 (1.4 per game) and concede on average 1.8, while seasonally they have 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded per game, which favors goal exchanges. Additionally, seasonal stats show the home side generates more chances (xG 1.49 vs 1.07, shots 13.5 vs 9.0, on target 4.25 vs 2.67) and the league BTTS rate is 52%, therefore I ultimately predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Average xG indicate total expected goals of 2.62 — home side 1.41 (xG_for 1.49 vs xG_against_away 1.33) versus visitors 1.21 (xG_for 1.07 vs xG_against_home 1.35). Las Vegas has a clear shooting superiority: 13.5 shots and 4.25 on target per game compared to Lexington’s 9.0 shots and 2.67 on target, with conversion rates of 9% vs 4%, which increases the hosts’ chance to capitalize on chances. Both teams record high season percentages of matches over 1.5 goals: Las Vegas 75% and Lexington 67%, while the league average is 2.63 goals per game, all of which boost the probability of exceeding the 1.5 line. The 2.5 line is moderately plausible — expected 2.62 goals and Las Vegas’s season Over 2.5 at 75% (but Lexington 0%) suggest an edge toward Over 2.5, though confidence is lower than for 1.5. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over at 1.5), assessed at 82% probability; Over 3.5 is unlikely (22%) given season values of 25%/0%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time a draw is the most likely: the home side average 0.25 goals by the break versus 0.33 for the visitors, and the hosts have kept a clean half in 75% of matches compared to 67% for the opponents, indicating frequent low-scoring first halves. After the break Las Vegas shows an offensive edge — xG 1.49 versus 1.07, on average 13.5 shots versus 9.0 and 4.25 shots on target versus 2.67, and a higher conversion rate 9% versus 4%, which increases the probability of home goals in the second half. The hosts score an average of 1.0 goals in second halves compared to 0.0 for the visitors and have collected 5 points after the break versus 1 point for the away side (5 vs 1), supporting a scenario in which the home team stages a turnaround after a half-time draw. Additionally the visitors have no away wins (0% wins) and score only 0.33 goals on the road, so the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half and home win by full-time (X/1) is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Las Vegas Lights | Lexington | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lexington is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Las Vegas Lights · 1 pts / match - Lexington
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Las Vegas Lights is 83% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Las Vegas Lights · 0.86 goals / match - Lexington
Lexington is 88% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.14 goals / match - Las Vegas Lights · 1.14 goals / match - Lexington
Las Vegas Lights scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while Lexington keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
Lexington scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Las Vegas Lights keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Las Vegas Lights
Over / Under - Lexington
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lexington is 126% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.57 pts / match - Las Vegas Lights · 1.29 pts / match - Lexington
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Las Vegas Lights - second-half results
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lexington - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Las Vegas Lights
Lexington
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Las Vegas Lights | Liga | Lexington | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.71 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 86% | 54% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 54% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 28% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 66% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 82% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Las Vegas Lights 1 - 1 - 0 Lexington. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
The USL Championship match finished Las Vegas Lights 2:1 Lexington. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Vegas Lights and Lexington?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Las Vegas Lights won 1, Lexington won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Las Vegas Lights score 1.57 goals per game on average and Lexington 0.86. The USL Championship average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 86% of Las Vegas Lights's matches and 43% of Lexington's.
What form are Las Vegas Lights and Lexington in?
Over the last 5 games Las Vegas Lights have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Lexington 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
The statistical background for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.