LDU Portoviejo vs Cumbayá: match statistics

LDU Portoviejo have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 56% of their matches, while Cumbayá win only 22% of their away games and lose 44% of them. The hosts concede just 0.44 goals per game at home, keeping a clean sheet in 56% of their appearances, whereas the visitors fail to score in 44% of away matches. LDU also create higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.51 compared to Cumbayá’s 1.23, and register 12.78 shots per game against their opponents’ 8.25. However, overall form favours the visitors, who are unbeaten in their last 5 matches and have conceded 0 goals during that run, making a draw a realistic scenario. Nevertheless, home advantage and LDU’s highly solid defensive record should give the hosts a slight edge to win in a low-scoring match.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Cumbayá have not conceded a single goal in their last 5 matches and have not recorded a BTTS outcome in any of them. LDU Portoviejo have scored just 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match, while 4 of their last 5 games did not produce a BTTS scenario. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their season matches, while the hosts have failed to score in 30% of games, increasing the likelihood of another goalless outing for LDU. Season BTTS figures are also limited: 50% for the hosts and just 33% for Cumbayá, compared with the league average of 37%. Although Cumbayá have recently created chances worth 1.48 xG, their solid defence and the hosts’ poor current finishing form favour a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

This is expected to be a very low-scoring game: the league-wide average is just 1.87 goals, while both teams concede only 0.90 and 0.78 goals per match respectively. Cumbayá have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five matches, while LDU Portoviejo have scored just 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per game. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 80% of the hosts’ matches and 100% of the visitors’ games, with Cumbayá yet to record a match featuring at least four goals. The low-scoring outlook is further supported by the clean-sheet figures: the hosts keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches and the visitors in 44%, while both teams score in just 33% of Cumbayá’s games. An estimated total of 1.45 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time, as LDU were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Cumbayá were level in as many as 80%; the average number of first-half goals was just 0.4 and 0.2, respectively. The hosts failed to score in the first half in any of those five matches, while the visitors did not concede before the break in a single one. After half-time, Cumbayá have shown clearly better form: they average 0.8 goals, have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their last five matches, and have remained unbeaten throughout that run. LDU scored just 0.4 goals per match over the same period and lost 60% of their games, so following a cautious first half, the probability of the visitors completing a turnaround and taking the result in their favour increases.