Le Havre vs Monaco: match statistics

Le Havre occupy a higher position in the home table, 4th compared with Monaco’s 9th in away matches, although the available season data do not yet show results exclusively under these conditions. In their last five matches, the hosts have drawn three times, won once and scored 8 goals, but they have also conceded 7. Monaco have a marginally better points return over this run, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Le Havre’s 1.2, but they have lost 2 of their 5 matches and conceded 8 goals. The visitors have scored just 6 goals in their last five matches, while Le Havre have netted 8, which somewhat offsets Monaco’s slightly better points form. Given Le Havre’s frequent draws and the similarly inconsistent defensive records of both teams, a share of the points appears to be the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is slightly positive, as both teams scored in 60% of Le Havre’s last 5 matches, compared with 40% for Monaco. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Monaco scored 1.2 and allowed opponents to score 1.6 goals. Le Havre created an average of 1.18 xG while allowing 1.57 xG, indicating a realistic chance for Monaco to score. Monaco’s attacking xG is lower at 0.99, but the hosts’ defence has not been watertight, while the visitors conceded 8 goals in their last five appearances. The edge for BTTS - Yes is slight, but the combination of Le Havre’s 8 goals and Monaco’s 6 in their last 5 matches, along with the vulnerability of both defences, provides greater support for a scenario in which both sides find the net.

In their last five matches, Le Havre averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Monaco scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 goals. However, the xG-generated attacking potential is more moderate: 1.18 for the hosts and just 0.99 for the visitors, which lowers the forecast to around 2.50 goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Le Havre’s recent matches and 40% of Monaco’s, amounting to just 3 of the 10 combined observations for both teams. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 matches, but the data does not point to regular four-goal games. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear edge, as even with a goal from each side, the most likely outcomes remain within the 1–3 goal range.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Monaco win, as Le Havre were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Monaco. The visitors did not lead at half-time in any of those five games and went into the break trailing in as many as 60% of them, which reduces the likelihood of HT/FT variants involving them leading after 45 minutes. After the interval, however, Monaco posted a clearly stronger record: they won the second half in 60% of matches, scored an average of 0.8 goals during that period, and kept a clean sheet in 80% of cases. Le Havre won just 20% of second halves and scored an average of 0.6 goals, so with a balanced opening period, the visitors have greater potential to decide the match after the break.