Lecco vs Pergolettese: match statistics

Lecco remain unbeaten at home: in their two matches played so far, they have recorded a win and a draw without conceding a single goal. The hosts create significantly more in the final third, averaging 15.5 shots and 7 on target compared with Pergolettese’s 8 and 2.33, while their average xG stands at 1.76 versus the visitors’ 0.97. Pergolettese score just 0.33 goals per away match and have failed to score in 67% of such games, which is a significant concern against a Lecco defence that has kept a clean sheet in every home fixture. The visitors have a slightly better record over their last five matches, averaging 1.4 points per game compared with Lecco’s 1.0, but their recent away form has produced only one win from three attempts. The hosts’ advantage in possession, 57% to 50%, and in the quality of chances created points towards a narrow home victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Lecco have yet to score in their home context, while Pergolettese average just 0.33 goals away from home. Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 0%, compared with the league average of 48%, and Pergolettese have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches. In their last five appearances, Lecco have scored only 0.2 goals per match and found the net in just 20% of games, while the visitors have recorded BTTS in only 20% of that run. The hosts average just 1.0 shot on target per match and have yet to convert any scoring chances, which significantly limits the likelihood of them scoring. Although Lecco’s latest xG stands at 1.43, their poor finishing and the defensive profile of both teams support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The profiles of both teams clearly point to a low-scoring game: Lecco averaged 0.2 goals over their last 5 matches, while Pergolettese averaged 0.6. In the same sample, the hosts conceded just 0.4 goals per game, compared with 0.8 for the visitors, creating a low-scoring baseline. The 2.5-goal line was not exceeded in any of Lecco’s last 5 matches and in only 20% of Pergolettese’s last 5 outings, while both teams scored in just 0% and 20% of those matches, respectively. Although the average xG figures suggest some chance-creation potential—1.43 for Lecco and 1.00 for Pergolettese over their last 5 matches—finishing remains poor, which particularly strengthens the Under 3.5 goals option. All previous matches involving both teams in the available season data finished under 3.5 goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Lecco were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while their home data shows that they neither conceded nor scored before half-time. The hosts average 0.0 goals at home, while Pergolettese average only 0.33 away, clearly limiting the likelihood of an early decisive outcome. In their last five matches, Lecco averaged 0.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Pergolettese recorded averages of 0.6 and 0.8 respectively, pointing to a very low-scoring game. The visitors kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, but also failed to score in 67% of those fixtures, further supporting a draw at full-time. Pergolettese have slightly greater potential to turn the result in their favour after the break, making X/2 the second-most likely outcome; however, the visitors’ scoring advantage is not strong enough to outweigh the X/X scenario.