Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Lomza: match statistics

Łomża are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in that span, while Lechia T. Mazowiecki have managed just 5 goals and only 1 win. The visitors conceded an average of 1 goal per match during this period, compared with 1.4 for the hosts, further strengthening the case for the Łomża side. In their only away match so far, Łomża lost despite creating chances worth 1.22 xG and recording 9 shots, including 4 on target, per game. However, the visitors’ away defence remains vulnerable, having allowed opponents 1.66 xG and conceded 3 goals, so Lechia have a realistic chance of scoring. Nevertheless, Łomża’s superior attacking tempo and three-match winning streak make an away win the preferred pick.

BTTS - Yes receives moderate support, as Łomża have scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while Lechia have conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period. The hosts have scored just 1.0 goal per match in their last five outings, but their xG stands at 1.56, while Łomża’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.09. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the season data, increasing the chance that Lechia will find the net at least once even if the visitors have the upper hand. The latest BTTS figures are 60% for Lechia and 40% for Łomża, compared with a league average of 61%; therefore, the signal for both teams to score is positive but not decisive.

Łomża average 2.0 goals per match, while Lechia T. Mazowiecki concede 1.0 goal, with the hosts yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, while their average xG figures stand at 1.56 and 1.51, respectively. During this period, the hosts scored 1.0 goal per match, compared with Łomża’s 2.2, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The league average of 3.28 goals and 67% of matches finishing Over 2.5 indicate the attacking nature of the competition, although the limited seasonal sample calls for caution with higher lines. The strongest signal comes from Over 1.5, as the projected 2.80 goals provide this line with a clear safety margin.

Łomża are showing significantly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.2 goals in those games, while Lechia have won just 1 match and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the home side were trailing at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors have not been behind at half-time on any occasion. Łomża scored an average of 2.0 goals before the break, compared with just 0.4 for Lechia, and their first-half goal difference was +3, while the home side’s was -2. The visitors also retain an attacking advantage after the interval, averaging 1.5 goals compared with Lechia’s 0.6. Although the home side’s xG stands at 1.54 versus 1.22 for Łomża, Lechia’s poor finishing and the visitors’ advantage in both results and first-half performances make an HT/FT scenario of Łomża leading at the break and securing the win at full-time the most likely outcome.