Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Swit: match statistics

Lechia T. Mazowiecki have a clearly stronger attacking profile at home, averaging 3.00 goals per match, compared with just 0.75 for Świt away from home. The hosts have won 67% of their home fixtures and average 8.67 shots on target, while the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Świt do create plenty of chances, as reflected by their away xG of 2.47, but their very poor 5% conversion rate and average of just 0.75 goals per match limit the value of this advantage. Lechia remain vulnerable defensively, conceding 2.33 goals per home game and keeping no clean sheets, so the visitors could find the net. Recent form also slightly favours the hosts, who have scored 10 goals and collected 7 points in their last five matches, compared with Świt’s 4 goals and 4 points.

Lechia recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Świt did so in 60%, clearly above their seasonal levels of 50% each. The hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.4, making their matches favourable for both teams to score. Świt scored just 0.8 goals per match in their last five outings, but generated a high 2.08 xG and averaged 7.0 shots on target, indicating the potential to overcome their poor finishing. Lechia keeps a clean sheet in only 25% of matches, while their average xG against opponents over the last five games stands at 2.0. The BTTS - Yes pick is therefore slightly preferred, although Świt’s 50% clean-sheet rate and low seasonal average of 0.75 goals scored limit confidence in the prediction.

Lechia score an average of 1.75 goals at home, while Świt concede 1.25 goals away, giving the hosts a solid foundation to find the net. Although Świt average only 0.75 goals scored, they generate as much as 2.47 xG per match and average 7 shots on target, meaning their attacking potential is greater than their results alone suggest. Lechia’s last five matches produced an average of 4.4 goals, with the hosts scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.4, while both teams exceeded 2.5 goals in 60% of their recent matches. The league has a high average of 3.63 goals per game, and the projected total of 3.05 goals clearly supports at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest choice, as it combines the attacking quality of both sides with Lechia’s clearly increased vulnerability at the back.

Lechia has a clearer first-half profile: they average 1.00 goal before the break, while Świt have not scored a single goal in this period and have been level at half-time in 75% of their matches. The hosts were leading after 45 minutes in 33% of games, whereas the visitors have never gone into the break with a lead. Across the season, Lechia average 1.75 goals per match compared with Świt’s 0.75, while after the break the hosts score an average of 1.00 goal and concede just 0.33. Świt do create more chances, with an xG of 2.47 compared with Lechia’s 1.96 and an average of 7.00 shots on target, but their low 5% conversion rate and having failed to score in 50% of matches limit the visitors’ chances. The most likely outcome is therefore Lechia leading at the break and securing the final victory (1/1).