Leevon / PPK vs Riga FC II: match statistics

Leevon/PPK hold a 4-2-0 record this season, sitting 3rd; at home they average 2.0 goals per game (11 goals this season, 9 in the last 5). Riga FC II are 2-1-3 (9th) and also have 9 goals this season, but on the road they score only 0.67 goals on average and have not recorded a single away win, with 67% of away matches ending goalless for them. The hosts concede 0.5 goals per home match on average and keep clean sheets in 50% of games, whereas the visitors concede 2.0 goals per away match and have not kept an away clean sheet. Both teams register a similar number of shots (7.0 vs 7.33) and shots on target (3.5 vs 3.67), but Leevon/PPK convert far better (29% conversion vs 9% for Riga II) and have a home xG of 1.16 versus 1.09 for the visitors on the road. Considering 2.2 points per game in the last 5 for the hosts versus 1.4 for the visitors, superior efficiency (29% vs 9%) and more stable defense (0.5 vs 2.0), I forecast a home victory.

I back BTTS - Yes at 70%, primarily because Leevon / PPK has a season BTTS rate of 100% and 100% of home matches over 2.5 goals, which is a very strong signal. Leevon averages 2.33 goals per game with xG 1.7, while conceding 2.0 per season, whereas Riga FC II averages only 0.67 goals and xG 1.09, but have failed to score in 67% of their matches this season. In the last 5 matches Riga scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and have 60% BTTS in that period, and their recent xG_for 1.13 is close to Leevon’s 1.16 xG_against over five games, providing a realistic chance for goals. Additionally Leevon creates significantly more chances (8.33 shots on target and 19% conversion versus 3.67 and 9% for the opponents), and the league BTTS level is 61%, so the both-teams-to-score scenario is more likely, although Riga’s high share of goalless matches limits the confidence of the forecast.

The xG-based model yields a total expected goals figure of 3.24 (Leevon 1.76; Riga II 1.48), computed as the average of attack xG and xG against (home xG 1.70 vs away xG 1.09; xG against 1.86/1.82). The hosts score an average of 2.33 goals per game and register 8.33 shots on target, while Riga II records 0.67 goals and 3.67 shots on target; the conversion rate is 19% versus 9%. Season stats show both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, and the hosts have 100% of matches over 2.5; the league averages 3.54 goals per game. A Poisson distribution based on these expectations gives approximately an 83% probability for Over 1.5, ~63% for Over 2.5 and ~41% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is to play the Over line at 1.5.

Leevon/PPK led at the break in 67% of matches this season and average 2.0 goals before half-time, while Riga FC II average 0.33 first-half goals. Seasonally the hosts score 2.33 goals per game versus 0.67 for the visitors, have higher xG (1.7 vs 1.09), more shots (12 vs 7.33) and more shots on target (8.33 vs 3.67), and their conversion rate is 19% compared to 9%. The hosts have won 67% of matches and average 2.0 points per match, whereas the visitors average 0.33 points per match and have no wins (0%), which increases the probability of a home victory after 90 minutes. Although in the last five matches the hosts led at the break in only 20% of cases, the season-long half-time record shows the hosts have accumulated 7 points and average 2.33 points per match at half-time, indicating they can translate a lead at the break into the final result. Therefore the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1); I also allow for a half-time draw (seasonal percentage of first-half draws 33%) and a small chance of a turnaround after the break.