Leixões vs CD Tondela: match statistics

CD Tondela have a slightly better record over their last five matches, collecting 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, while Leixões have earned 9 points. Both teams have scored 8 goals and conceded 6 during this period, so the visitors’ edge is not based on attacking efficiency but on greater consistency in picking up points. Tondela began the current season with a 2:1 win, whereas Leixões suffered a 0:1 defeat, further strengthening the case for the away side. The visitors also sit 7th in the table, while the hosts are 13th. The home and away data is still too limited to draw firm conclusions, so a draw remains a realistic scenario; however, a Tondela win is marginally more likely.

The latest form of both teams points towards goals at both ends: Leixões and CD Tondela have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. Each team scored 8 goals during this period, averaging 1.6 per game, while both also conceded 1.2 goals per match. Leixões created noticeably more quality chances, posting an average xG of 1.76, whereas Tondela recorded 1.08 xG, which still provides a realistic basis for scoring against an opposing defence allowing 0.98 xG. The low league-wide BTTS frequency of 33% weighs against the pick, but the current data for both teams is considerably more offensive, making the scenario of both sides scoring slightly more likely.

Both teams have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last 5 matches, indicating genuine potential for at least two goals. Leixões created chances worth 1.76 xG per match during this period, clearly more than Tondela’s 1.08 xG, so the hosts should be the main source of goals. 60% of each team’s last five matches finished with Over 2.5 goals, and both sides scored in the same percentage of games. However, the low league average of 1.89 goals and just 33% of matches going Over 2.5 call for caution with higher lines. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected 2.55 goals gives this market a clear edge with less risk than Over 2.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and after the final whistle, as both teams were level at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches, accounting for 40% of cases. The first halves were cautious: Leixões averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before the break, while Tondela scored 0.6 and conceded just 0.4. Across their last five matches, both teams recorded identical averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, limiting either side’s advantage over the full match. After half-time, Leixões have not lost any of their last 5 matches, recording a 40% win rate and 60% draw rate, while Tondela have posted 40% wins, 40% draws and 20% losses in this part of the game. The league is also low-scoring, averaging 1.89 goals per match with 78% clean sheets, so an even, closed match most strongly supports the X/X HT/FT outcome.