Libertad vs Olimpia: match statistics

Libertad have a clear home advantage: they win 63% of their home matches, average 1.94 goals scored and concede just 1.00 goal per game. The hosts also create slightly better chances, recording an average xG of 1.69 compared with Olimpia’s 1.67, while their shot conversion rate stands at 13% versus 9% for their opponents. Olimpia are nevertheless in excellent current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 3. The visitors average only 1.38 goals away from home, whereas Libertad have a positive home goal difference of +15. A closely fought match is expected, but Libertad’s greater attacking output at home and superior finishing give the hosts a slight edge to win.

Libertad have recorded BTTS in 56% of their matches, while Olimpia have done so in 44%; however, both teams have reached 60% over their last five games. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals per match, compared with Olimpia’s 1.38, supported by solid chance-creation metrics: xG stands at 1.77 and 1.67 respectively. In their current form, Olimpia are scoring 2.2 goals per match, while Libertad are conceding 1.4, which clearly strengthens the visitors’ chances of finding the net. On the other hand, Olimpia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their matches and have conceded just 0.6 goals per game over their last five, so the BTTS outlook is not decisive. Nevertheless, the high attacking activity from both sides, with each averaging more than 5 shots on target per match, points slightly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Libertad create chances worth an average of 1.77 xG at home, while Olimpia average 1.67 xG away from home, indicating the potential for around 2.70 total goals. At the same time, both teams are defensively solid: Libertad concede an average of 0.75 goals, while Olimpia concede just 0.88 goals per match. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 75% of Libertad’s matches and as many as 94% of Olimpia’s, while Over 3.5 goals has occurred in only 25% and 6% of their respective matches. Olimpia have conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, despite scoring 11, further limiting the risk of a very high-scoring game. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the data supports a match with 2–3 goals far more strongly than a scenario featuring at least four goals.

A Half-Time draw is the most likely outcome, as Libertad were level at the break in 8 of 16 matches, or 50%, while the average number of goals in their first halves is only 0.75. Both teams also tend to maintain defensive discipline before half-time: Libertad concede an average of 0.25 goals, compared with Olimpia’s 0.38, in this period. After the break, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who score an average of 1.50 goals in second halves compared with Olimpia’s 0.75 and win this period in 69% of matches. Libertad also have a higher average points tally over the season, 2.31 versus 1.94, and score an average of 2.00 goals per match compared with Olimpia’s 1.38. The visitors’ strong current form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and an average of 2.20 goals, keeps the X/2 and 2/2 scenarios at a significant probability, but does not negate Libertad’s advantage after the break.