Liefering vs St. Pölten: match statistics

Liefering sit 2nd and have collected 10 points from five matches, winning 3 times, while St. Pölten are 15th with just 3 points from one victory. The hosts have scored 13 goals during this period, compared with just 1 for the visitors, clearly highlighting the difference in current attacking efficiency. At home, Liefering average 2 goals per match and have failed to score in none of their games, whereas St. Pölten have failed to find the net in 100% of their away matches. The visitors do average 61% possession and generate 1.50 xG, but have not converted this into a single goal and have lost both of their away fixtures so far. Liefering concede an average of 2 goals at home, so a draw remains a realistic alternative, but the hosts’ superior form and clinical finishing point towards a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is St. Pölten’s attack: over their last 5 matches, the team averaged just 0.2 goals and scored only once in total. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far and have a BTTS rate of 0%, while Liefering have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their home fixtures. Liefering are in significantly better scoring form, averaging 2.6 goals across their last five appearances, so the most likely scenario is that the hosts score while their opponents fail to respond. St. Pölten’s potential is not negligible, as their average xG over the last 5 matches stands at 1.48, while Liefering allowed 1.76 xG during this period; however, the visitors’ actual scoring efficiency remains very poor. With the league-average BTTS rate at 50%, the data for both teams—particularly St. Pölten’s lack of goals—clearly shift the forecast toward a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Data from matches in these roles points to a very low scoring record so far: Liefering averaged 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home, while St. Pölten scored 0 goals away from home and conceded 1.00. In both cases, all previous matches under these conditions finished with fewer than 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals, although this is a small sample size. Liefering’s recent form has been noticeably more open, with its last 5 matches producing an average of 4.2 goals, but St. Pölten scored just 0.2 goals per game over the same period. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.44, yet the visitors, despite an xG of 1.48, remain extremely inefficient in front of goal, limiting the prospects of an end-to-end game. The projected total of 2.35 goals provides the greatest margin of safety on the Under 3.5 goals market.

Liefering are in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 goals and 2.0 points per game, while St. Pölten have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 0.2 goals per game. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors have not led at half-time on any occasion and have failed to score in the first half. The advantage is also evident after the interval, with Liefering averaging 1.4 goals in second halves, compared with just 0.2 for St. Pölten, who have failed to score in 80% of their last five matches after the break. Although the teams’ average xG figures are similar—1.39 for the hosts versus 1.50 for the visitors—St. Pölten’s poor finishing and 80% defeat rate in their latest run strongly reinforce the HT/FT scenario of Liefering leading at half-time and securing the final victory.