Liepāja vs Super Nova: match statistics
Liepāja vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Liepāja played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 12 June 2026. Venue: Stadions Daugava. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Liepāja: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Super Nova: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Liepāja scores 1.31 and concedes 1.44 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.13 and concedes 1.44. League average: 3.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Liepāja 63%, Super Nova 63%. Over 2.5: Liepāja 56%, Super Nova 56%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Liepāja has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.09. Liepāja: 12.1 shots per match, Super Nova: 8.1.
Match halves
Liepāja: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.81. Super Nova: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Liepāja: 46-60 (6 goals). Super Nova: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.01 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 3.40, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Liepāja is the favorite in this match due to superior form and efficiency: in the last 5 matches the home side scored 11 goals (2.2 per match) and average 2.0 points per match, while Super Nova scored 7 goals in their last 5 (1.4 per match) and average 1.4 points per match. At home Liepāja averages 1.75 goals per game with 10.5 shots and 4.75 shots on target, and has a 17% conversion rate, whereas the visitors on the road average 1.00 goal with 8.33 shots and 3.33 shots on target and a 12% conversion. Defensively the hosts concede 1.00 goal at home and have an average xG against of 1.32, while Super Nova concedes 1.11 goals away and allows 1.52 xG against, giving Liepāja a slight qualitative edge in chance control. Additionally, Liepāja is less likely to be shut out (13% of home matches without scoring vs 33% for the visitors) and has a home goal difference of +6, while Super Nova have an away goal difference of -1. Given the advantage in chance creation and finishing (4.75 vs 3.33 shots on target and 17% vs 12% conversion) I predict a home win; probability distribution: 60% Liepāja, 20% draw, 20% Super Nova.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The signal in favor of BTTS - Yes is based on Liepāja’s season BTTS rate of 100% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Super Nova has a season BTTS of 33% but 60% in their last 5. Liepāja concedes an average of 1.86 goals this season with xG against of 1.90, indicating the hosts regularly allow goals; they also have zero clean sheets (0%). Super Nova concedes 1.11 goals on average this season, but their xG against in the last 5 increased to 1.88 and they actually conceded 1.4 goals on average, so their defense has been more vulnerable recently. Offensively Liepāja have averaged 2.2 goals in the last 5 with xG_for 1.77, while Super Nova recorded 1.4 goals in that period, so both sides possess realistic goal-scoring potential. Considering the league BTTS rate of 59% and the combination of 100% home BTTS for Liepāja versus Super Nova’s deteriorating defense in L5, I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% for Yes and 30% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model forecasts 1.83 expected goals for Liepāja and 1.26 for Super Nova, totaling 3.09 goals. It is based on the last 5 matches: Liepāja has xG_for 1.77 and xG_against 1.44, Super Nova xG_for 1.09 and xG_against 1.88 — the averages of these values produced the above expectations. Seasonally Liepāja at home has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, and Super Nova 67%; in the last 5 Liepāja scored 11 and conceded 6 goals (avg. 3.4 goals/match), Super Nova 7 and 7 (avg. 2.8). Seasonal percentages over 2.5 are 71% for Liepāja and 44% for Super Nova (last 5: 80% vs 60%), therefore Over 2.5 also looks likely (~66%), whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (~25%). Given the expected 3.09 goals and the extreme signal over 1.5 (100% of Liepāja’s home matches), the best market to play is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal points to an away win after 90 minutes — Super Nova wins 56% of their away matches and averages 1.67 points per away game, while Liepāja has only 14% home wins and 0.71 points per home match. At half-time a draw is more likely: Liepāja averages 0.86 goals scored and concedes 1.29 by the break, while Super Nova scores 0.44 and concedes 0.44; additionally Super Nova records 78% clean sheets in the first half on the road, which favors maintaining a draw at the break. xG metrics confirm the visitors’ advantage — xG_for_avg_away is 1.14 versus 1.02 for the hosts, and opponents create on average 1.90 xG against Liepāja compared to 1.52 against Super Nova, indicating higher-quality chances for the visitors and weaker Liepāja defense. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Super Nova win after 90 minutes (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Liepāja | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Liepāja is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Liepāja · 1.4 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Liepāja is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - Liepāja · 1.13 goals / match - Super Nova
Liepāja scores in 75% of matches (12 of 16 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
Super Nova scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while Liepāja keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Liepāja
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Liepāja is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Liepāja · 1.19 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Liepāja - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Liepāja
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Liepāja | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 3.01 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 59% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 54% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 21% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 77% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 94% | 86% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Liepāja 2 - 1 - 2 Super Nova. Average goals 3.40, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Liepāja vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished Liepāja 2:1 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Liepāja and Super Nova?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Liepāja won 2, Super Nova won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Liepāja vs Super Nova?
Liepāja score 1.31 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.13. The Virsliga average is 3.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Liepāja's matches and 63% of Super Nova's.
What form are Liepāja and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Liepāja have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Super Nova 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Liepāja vs Super Nova?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Liepāja vs Super Nova: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.