Linfield vs Larne: match statistics
Linfield vs Larne: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Linfield played Larne in NIFL Premiership (Northern Ireland). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Linfield: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Larne: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Linfield scores 1.71 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. Larne scores 1.80 and concedes 0.74. League average: 2.86 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Linfield 40%, Larne 43%. Over 2.5: Linfield 46%, Larne 49%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Linfield has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.56. Linfield: 12.5 shots per match, Larne: 12.4.
Match halves
Linfield: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.09. Larne: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.97.
Goals by minute
Linfield: 61-75 (16 goals). Larne: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NIFL Premiership: 2.86 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-0. Average goals 0.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (Linfield) because they average 2.38 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded in home matches, have 56% clean sheets and an 81% home win rate. Larne lead the league with 63 goals and 23 wins this season, but on the road they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, with 19% of away games without scoring. In terms of chance quality, Linfield’s home xG is 1.66 with xG against 1.01, while Larne’s away xG is 1.49 with xG against 1.23, indicating a home advantage in chance creation and restriction. In the last 5 matches Linfield have 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (2.0 points per game, 8 scored, 5 conceded), and Larne 3 wins and 2 losses (1.8 points per game, 9 scored, 7 conceded), so form is comparable but Linfield’s defense is superior. Given the better home defense (0.44 goals conceded and 56% clean sheets), higher shot conversion for the home side (18% vs 16%) and a lower share of matches without scoring (13% vs 19%), I give Linfield the greater chances.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season statistics point to a moderate probability for BTTS: Linfield have BTTS in 42% of matches, Larne in 44%, both below the league average of 52%, which weakens the signal for BTTS - Yes. A strong argument for BTTS - No is Linfield’s high clean sheet rate of 58% and a season average of goals conceded of 0.74 (vs 0.75 for Larne), meaning the home side rarely concedes. Short-term, both teams have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches and recently concede on average 1.0 (Linfield) and 1.4 (Larne) goals, which slightly raises the risk of both teams scoring. Overall xG and chance creation favor Linfield (xG 1.62 vs 1.49 and 13.63 vs 11.0 shots), suggesting control and the ability to keep a clean sheet; therefore I assess No Goal as more likely: 62% No Goal and 38% BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I expect 1.43 goals for Linfield and 1.25 for Larne (total 2.68); I calculated this as the average of Linfield’s attacking xG 1.62 and the visitors’ defensive xG 1.23, and Larne’s attacking xG 1.49 and the hosts’ defensive xG 1.01. Seasonally both teams often exceed the 1.5 line: Linfield has 79% of matches over 1.5, Larne 81%, which gives a strong signal for Over 1.5. The case for Over 2.5 is moderate — seasonally Linfield has 53% of matches over 2.5, Larne 44%, but in the last 5 matches Larne records 80% of such games versus 40% for Linfield; with a projected total of 2.68 this raises the probability of Over 2.5 to around 60%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely: seasonally only 26% of Linfield’s games and 13% of Larne’s exceed 3.5 goals, and the predicted total 2.68 is well below 3.5. Additionally Linfield keep a clean sheet in 58% of matches, and BTTS occurs seasonally in 42% of home matches and 44% of away matches, which slightly reduces the chance of both teams scoring. Therefore the best and strongest takeaway from the data is a play on Over 1.5 (about 84%), while Over 2.5 is a riskier option (about 60%), and Under 3.5 is safer (about 78%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1). Half-time draws occur frequently — the home side records HT draws in 42% of matches and the visitors in 38%, yielding roughly a 40% chance of a draw at the break. After the break the home team holds a clear advantage: they average 1.53 goals in the second half versus 1.06 for the visitors and win the second half in 63% of cases compared to 38% for the away side, while their second-half xG of 1.62 versus 1.49 for the opponents indicates superior chance creation. Although Larne score more in the first half (average 1.0 HT goals vs 0.68 for the hosts) and lead at the break in 50% of games, the second-half statistics and Linfield’s effectiveness after the interval increase the probability of a turnaround in favor of the home team.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Linfield | Larne | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Larne is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Linfield · 2.4 pts / match - Larne
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Larne is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.71 goals / match - Linfield · 1.8 goals / match - Larne
Linfield scores in 74% of matches (26 of 35 matches), while Larne keeps a clean sheet in 51% (18 of 35 matches).
Larne scores in 86% of matches (30 of 35 matches), while Linfield keeps a clean sheet in 46% (16 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Linfield
Over / Under - Larne
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Larne is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.66 pts / match - Linfield · 1.77 pts / match - Larne
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Linfield - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Larne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 66%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (16 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +15 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Linfield
Larne
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NIFL Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Linfield | Liga | Larne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.46 | 2.86 | ▼ 2.54 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 54% | ▼ 49% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 26% | ▲ 51% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 76% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 80% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- LinfieldYellow cardOliver Wade
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Linfield 0 - 3 - 0 Larne. Average goals 0.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Linfield vs Larne?
The NIFL Premiership match finished Linfield 0:2 Larne. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Linfield and Larne?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Linfield won 0, Larne won 0 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 0.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Linfield vs Larne?
Linfield score 1.71 goals per game on average and Larne 1.80. The NIFL Premiership average is 2.86 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Linfield's matches and 43% of Larne's.
What form are Linfield and Larne in?
Over the last 5 games Linfield have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Larne 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Linfield vs Larne?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.