Liverpool vs Fulham: match statistics

Liverpool remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Fulham have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The hosts create more high-quality chances at home: their average xG stands at 1.68 compared with Fulham’s 1.17 away from home, and they also average 4 shots on target per match. In their only away game so far, Fulham failed to score, registered no shots on target and lost, further strengthening Liverpool’s advantage. However, the Anfield side concede an average of 2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, so a goal for the visitors or a closely contested spell remains a realistic scenario. Liverpool’s edge in chance creation, 69% possession and Fulham’s weaker away form point towards a home win.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes is Fulham’s current attacking output: the visitors have not scored away from home yet, averaging 0 shots on target per match and recording 100% of games without scoring. Liverpool have also failed to keep a clean sheet at home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals, which gives Fulham a clear chance, but their seasonal xG of 1.17 does not support a high level of attacking consistency. In the last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of cases, clearly below the league average of 53%. Liverpool create a high volume of chances, with an average xG of 2.18 and 19.5 shots, so the most realistic No Goal scenario is a home win to nil rather than a goalless draw. Although Fulham’s latest xG rose to 2.11, the absence of an away goal and shots on target support the view that at least one team—primarily the visitors—may fail to score. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Liverpool create chances worth an average of 2.18 xG at home and take 19.5 shots per match, clearly supporting a minimum of two goals in the game. Despite having failed to score in their away record so far, Fulham have averaged 2.11 xG and scored 1.6 goals per game across their last five matches, meaning they can contribute to the final score. Liverpool’s defence has allowed an average of 1.50 xG at home, while Fulham concede an average of 1.29 xG away from home, giving the hosts favourable conditions to score. The last five matches involving the two teams produced an average of 2.4 and 3.0 goals respectively, while the 2.5 line is less certain due to only 40% of Liverpool’s recent matches reaching this total. The strongest selection is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 2.75 goals provide a clear margin above this line.

Liverpool have a clear advantage in chance creation: the hosts’ average xG is 2.18 compared with Fulham’s 1.17, while shots on target stand at 6.0 versus 0.0 for the visitors. At home, Liverpool have averaged 2.0 goals, although the small seasonal sample of just two matches calls for cautious interpretation. In their last five games, the hosts remain unbeaten, with two wins and three draws, whereas Fulham have lost three of their last five matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. Liverpool held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, while Fulham, despite the same 40% rate, have conceded an average of 0.8 goals after half-time while scoring just 0.6. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for Liverpool to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.