Liverpool vs Manchester City: match statistics

Manchester City have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals, while Liverpool have recorded 4 wins and a draw, scoring 8 goals. The visitors have also won both of their away matches so far, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded; Liverpool have drawn twice at home, averaging 1 goal scored and 1 conceded. City’s superior finishing is reflected in their away shots on target: 5.5 per match compared with Liverpool’s 3.5 at home. However, the hosts are creating chances of slightly higher quality, with an average home xG of 1.63 compared with City’s 1.51 away, so they still have a chance. The visitors’ clinical edge and winning streak point to a City victory, although an unbeaten Liverpool could force a draw.

Liverpool score an average of 2.67 goals at home, while Manchester City average 2.5 away, which points to both teams finding the net. Their average xG figures are 1.70 and 1.51 respectively, and each side records more than 5 shots on target per match. Liverpool recorded BTTS in 67% of their home matches, while City did so in 50% of their away fixtures; neither team failed to score in these conditions. Caution is warranted, however, by their last 5 matches, in which BTTS landed in 40% and 20% of cases respectively, with the teams conceding an average of just 0.4 and 0.6 goals. Despite this solid defensive form, both sides’ attacking potential gives a slight edge to the scenario in which each team scores.

Liverpool score an average of 2.67 goals at home, while Manchester City average 2.5 away, giving both teams the potential to contribute to the scoreline. Their average xG figures are 1.70 and 1.51, respectively, supporting a forecast of around 2.8 goals in the match, although City concede an average of just 0.5 goals away from home. In their last five matches, both teams recorded a relatively low share of games with at least three goals—40% each—so the 2.5 line offers a less convincing signal. The pick is Over 1.5 goals: it requires just two goals, and with 2.8 forecast, it offers a clearer edge than the other lines analysed.

A draw at half-time is the most compelling starting point: Liverpool were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Manchester City did so in 2 of 5. In addition, City conceded no first-half goals in either of the 2 away matches considered, although Liverpool averaged 1.33 first-half goals at home, so an early away advantage is far from certain. After the break, the stronger signal favours City: across their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.6 goals in second halves compared with Liverpool’s 0.8, and won 5 matches, while the hosts won 4 and drew once. City also averaged 2.8 goals per match over this period, compared with Liverpool’s 1.6, increasing the likelihood that they will settle a closely contested game in the second half. The X/2 pick remains only moderately confident, however, as Liverpool average 1.70 xG at home compared with City’s 1.51 away.