Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics

Liverpool hold a slight advantage over the last five matches: they have collected 5 points compared with Nottingham Forest’s 4, recording 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The hosts have scored 8 goals during this period, 3 more than Forest, suggesting greater attacking potential. However, neither defence has been particularly stable, as Liverpool have conceded 9 goals in five matches, compared with 7 for the visitors, making a clean sheet for the hosts relatively unlikely. In the current season, Liverpool drew their only match played and scored 2 goals, while Nottingham Forest lost their sole fixture without finding the net. Home advantage and slightly greater recent attacking efficiency favour a Liverpool win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The primary signal for BTTS comes from current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams produced this outcome in 60% of games. During this period, Liverpool scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.8, while Nottingham scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4, indicating vulnerability in both defences. This is supported by the quality-of-chances metrics: Liverpool record 1.91 xG and allow opponents 1.71 xG, while Nottingham’s figures are 1.38 and 1.66, respectively. The hosts should have clear chances to score, as they average 12 shots, including 2 on target, while the high number of opportunities at both ends increases the likelihood of an away goal. Although the league BTTS average is only 40%, the current data from the last five matches slightly favour the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal option.

Recent form points to a goal-filled match: Liverpool have scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.8 in their last 5 matches, while Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The combined average goals across these five matches was 3.4 for Liverpool and 2.4 for Forest, supporting a projection close to 2.90 goals. The attacking potential reflected in xG is also clear, with Liverpool recording 1.91 xG per match and Forest 1.38, while their defences have allowed an average of 1.71 and 1.66 xG, respectively. Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, making a completely tight match difficult to expect. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as just two goals are required to cover it, while the form data and a league average of 3.0 goals give it a clear edge.

Liverpool were leading at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before the break, while Nottingham managed only 0.4 goals during this period. The visitors were behind after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five games, recording a half-time goal difference of -1, compared with +4 for the hosts. Liverpool’s first-half advantage is further supported by 12 shots and an xG of 1.27, although their current finishing efficiency leaves some room for risk. After the break, the hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals, so a draw or turnaround remains possible; however, the highest single probability is that they will maintain their lead until full-time.