Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split: match statistics
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lokomotiva Zagreb played Hajduk Split in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Lokomotiva Zagreb: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Hajduk Split: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lokomotiva Zagreb scores 1.15 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Hajduk Split scores 1.59 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lokomotiva Zagreb 65%, Hajduk Split 41%. Over 2.5: Lokomotiva Zagreb 44%, Hajduk Split 44%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Hajduk Split has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.30. Lokomotiva Zagreb: 10.1 shots per match, Hajduk Split: 14.3.
Match halves
Lokomotiva Zagreb: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.59. Hajduk Split: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.88.
Goals by minute
Lokomotiva Zagreb: 0-15 (8 goals). Hajduk Split: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Hajduk Split due to superior season metrics: 19 wins and 54 goals versus Lokomotiva’s 10 wins and 39 goals. Hajduk away averages 1.59 goals with xG 1.64 and concedes 1.00 goal per match, while Lokomotiva at home scores 1.35 with xG 1.34 and concedes 1.41 — this gives the visitors an advantage both in offense (+0.24 goals) and in expected chances (xG +0.30). An important asset for Hajduk is chance creation: 13.65 average shots and 4.71 on target away with 57% possession, versus Lokomotiva’s 10.53 shots, 3.76 on target and 49% possession — indicating greater control and chance volume for the visitors. However, Lokomotiva have better form in their last five: 1.6 points per match with a 2-2-1 record and a 5-5 goal balance, while Hajduk’s last five yield 1.0 point per match with a 1-2-2 record and 5-6 goals, which reduces the favorite’s edge. Considering the xG advantage (+0.30), superior chance-conversion metrics and lower average goals conceded (1.00 vs 1.41), I give Hajduk the higher probability to win, but the hosts’ current form makes a draw or a Lokomotiva win realistic.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I lean toward "No" (No Goal) because Lokomotiva's season BTTS rate is 47% and Hajduk's is 35%, averaging roughly 41%, which is well below the league benchmark of 54%. In the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS in only 40% of fixtures, and Hajduk failed to score in 35% of season matches compared to just 12% for Lokomotiva, increasing the likelihood that one side will keep a clean sheet. On the other hand xG indicates both teams have scoring potential: Lokomotiva's average xG is 1.87 versus Hajduk's average xG conceded of 1.31, while Hajduk's xG is 1.64 versus Lokomotiva's average xG conceded of 1.11 — both differences are around +0.5 xG. Additionally Lokomotiva produces more shots and shots on target (avg. 15.06 shots and 6.06 on target vs. Hajduk's 13.65 and 4.71), which raises their likelihood to score, but both teams keep clean sheets in 41% of matches. Considering the lower seasonal BTTS rates (47% and 35%), the higher share of away matches without a goal (35%), and the recent 40% BTTS in five games, I assign a 60% probability to No Goal and 40% to BTTS (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model indicates a tilt toward goals: combining the home xG 1.87 with opponents’ away xG conceded 1.31 yields expected goals for Lokomotiva ≈1.59, and combining Hajduk’s away xG 1.64 with the home side’s xG conceded 1.11 yields expected goals for the visitors ≈1.38, totaling ≈2.97 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.97 gives roughly 79.6% probability for Over 1.5, 57.0% for Over 2.5 and 34.6% for Over 3.5 (rounded: 80%, 57%, 35%). Seasonal stats confirm a strong signal for Over 1.5 — Lokomotiva has 82% of matches >1.5 goals, Hajduk 76% (average 79%) — while Over 2.5 shares are 47% and 41%, which weakens confidence at the 2.5 line. Additionally both teams generate many shots (averages 15.06 and 13.65) and a significant number of shots on target (6.06 and 4.71), supporting the hypothesis of more goal-scoring opportunities. Consequently the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is OVER 1.5 (selection: Over 1.5); at 2.5 the risk is moderate (Over 57% vs seasonal avg. 44%), and at 3.5 the clear edge favors the Under.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Lokomotiva led at the break in 8 of 17 matches this season (47%), while Hajduk did so in only 6 of 17 (35%). The hosts average 0.76 goals by half-time versus 0.65 for the visitors, giving them an advantage in the first half. Offensively Lokomotiva posts higher xG (1.87 vs 1.64) and more shots on target (6.06 vs 4.71), creating more chances than Hajduk despite similar finishing rates (11% vs 12%). Additionally, the hosts scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90 and conceded only 1 in that period, and in second halves they have scored at least once in 82% of matches, indicating an ability to maintain or extend a lead. Considering that at least one goal is scored by half-time in 76% of both teams’ matches and that the hosts keep a first-half clean sheet in 65% of games, the strongest scenario is Lokomotiva leading at the break and winning the match, which I assign a 33% probability; the second signal is a half-time draw with a home win (X/1) at 13%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lokomotiva Zagreb | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lokomotiva Zagreb is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1 pts / match - Hajduk Split
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hajduk Split is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.15 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1.59 goals / match - Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split is 60% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0.94 goals / match - Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb scores in 79% of matches (27 of 34 matches), while Hajduk Split keeps a clean sheet in 41% (14 of 34 matches).
Hajduk Split scores in 76% of matches (26 of 34 matches), while Lokomotiva Zagreb keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lokomotiva Zagreb
Over / Under - Hajduk Split
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hajduk Split is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1.59 pts / match - Hajduk Split
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lokomotiva Zagreb - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hajduk Split - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Hajduk Split
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Lokomotiva Zagreb | Liga | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.65 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 27% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 78% | ▼ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 78% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 - 0 - 3 Hajduk Split. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?
The Prva HNL match finished Lokomotiva Zagreb 1:1 Hajduk Split. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiva Zagreb and Hajduk Split?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Lokomotiva Zagreb won 0, Hajduk Split won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?
Lokomotiva Zagreb score 1.15 goals per game on average and Hajduk Split 1.59. The Prva HNL average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Lokomotiva Zagreb's matches and 41% of Hajduk Split's.
What form are Lokomotiva Zagreb and Hajduk Split in?
Over the last 5 games Lokomotiva Zagreb have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Hajduk Split 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.