Lomza vs Jagiellonia II: match statistics

Jagiellonia II have a clearly superior season record: they have lost only 1 of 6 matches, while Łomża have yet to win and have suffered 4 defeats. The visitors have also been more consistent in their last five games, collecting 6 points compared with the hosts’ mere 2; during this period, Łomża conceded as many as 11 goals. Łomża’s attacking output at home remains the biggest concern, as the hosts are yet to score there despite averaging 11 shots and an xG of 1.19. Away from home, Jagiellonia II average 1.67 goals and register 3.67 shots on target per match, but their defence concedes an average of 2.67 goals and allows opponents an xG of 2.00. The visitors’ defensive frailties increase the likelihood of a draw, but their greater attacking efficiency and stronger recent form point to a narrow victory.

Both teams have recorded goals from both sides in 67% of their matches, while the league average is a high 70%, supporting the BTTS scenario. Jagiellonia II are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals, while Łomża score 1.67 goals per home game. The visitors average 1.67 goals scored, and Łomża have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match across their last five games, giving the away side solid grounds to find the net. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures: 1.52 for Łomża and 1.27 for Jagiellonia II over the last five rounds, with their defences allowing 1.74 and 1.61 xG respectively. BTTS has landed in 60% of the last five matches for both sides, so it is more likely that both teams will score at least one goal.

Łomża score an average of 1.67 goals at home, while Jagiellonia’s reserves concede as many as 2.67 goals away from home, clearly strengthening the outlook for goals by the hosts. In their last five matches, both teams played games averaging 3.4 goals: Łomża conceded 2.2 goals per match, while Jagiellonia II conceded 1.6. The xG figures also suggest an open game, with the hosts creating an average of 1.52 xG in their last five matches, while their opponents allow rivals 1.61 xG. At least two goals have been scored in all previous matches involving both teams, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest selection, even with the greater volatility of the Over 2.5 line.

Jagiellonia II were leading at half-time in 2 of their 3 away matches so far, scoring an average of 1.33 goals before the break, while Łomża had conceded 1.2 goals in the first half across their last five fixtures. The visitors are in better current form: they have averaged 1.2 points per match in their last five outings, compared with just 0.4 for Łomża, who have not won any of those games. After the break, Jagiellonia II’s defensive weakness is the key factor, as they concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home; however, Łomża have scored just 0.4 goals after half-time in their last five matches. The hosts have the higher attacking xG, 1.39 compared with 1.18, but the visitors’ reserve side have protected their leads better in recent first halves, keeping a clean sheet in 80% of them. The most likely scenario is therefore that Jagiellonia II will capitalise on their advantage in the early stages and hold on to their lead until the final whistle.