Londrina vs Criciúma: match statistics

Although Criciúma sit 5th in the table and Londrina are only 18th, the statistics from the venues relevant to this matchup give the hosts a slight edge. Londrina average 1.53 goals and generate an xG of 1.60 at home, while Criciúma average 0.93 goals and 1.30 xG away from home. The hosts also average 4.4 shots on target per home game, compared with the visitors’ 3.21 away, although they have won only 27% of their matches on home soil. Both teams have recorded two wins in their last five matches, but Londrina have scored 10 goals to Criciúma’s 5. The visitors’ defence has nevertheless been more solid over the course of the season, conceding 27 goals compared with the hosts’ 43. Londrina’s advantage in creating chances at home gives them a narrow edge, but the gap in the table and the hosts’ home form mean a draw or an away win cannot be ruled out.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Londrina’s defensive record: they keep a clean sheet in 56% of home matches and concede an average of just 0.63 goals. Criciúma score an average of 0.93 goals away from home and fail to score in 29% of those matches, so their goal is far from certain. BTTS has landed in just 25% of Londrina’s home matches, compared with 50% of Criciúma’s away fixtures. Although the hosts have scored an average of 2 goals across their last 5 matches, and both teams have conceded 1.4 and 1.6 goals per match respectively over that period, neither team has scored in any of Criciúma’s last 5 matches at the same time. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score than that both teams will find the net.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been surpassed in 94% of Londrina’s home matches and 86% of Criciúma’s away games. The hosts concede an average of just 0.63 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 56% of those matches, limiting the visitors’ chances of driving up the score. Londrina score an average of 1.13 goals at home, while Criciúma average 0.93 away; their scoring numbers therefore point more towards a moderate goal total. The main risk of a higher-scoring game comes from Londrina’s recent form: they have averaged 2.0 goals across their last five matches, with at least three goals scored in 80% of those games. Despite this uptick, the projected total of 2.31 goals leaves a clearer margin of safety on Under 3.5 than on lower lines.

The strongest scenario is Londrina leading at the break and maintaining that advantage through to the final whistle: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 50% of their matches, while Criciúma conceded an average of 0.50 goals before the break. Londrina scored an average of 0.56 goals in the first half and conceded just 0.19, supporting the case for an early lead. Over the full match, the hosts won 56% of their games, compared with 36% for the visitors, and averaged 1.73 xG against Criciúma’s 1.30. Londrina’s 56% clean-sheet rate also points to them holding their lead, although a half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as the visitors were level at the break in 43% of their matches. Recent form calls for caution: both teams lost 3 of their last 5 matches, so the hosts’ advantage does not guarantee the outcome.