Ludogorets II vs Nesebar: match statistics

Ludogorets II have the home advantage: they win 40% of their home matches and score an average of 1.8 goals in them, while Nesebar lose 67% of their away matches and score just 0.67 goals. The hosts have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals during that spell; the visitors have failed to win any of their matches, scoring just 3 goals. Ludogorets II’s edge is also reflected in their shot conversion rate at home of 18%, compared with Nesebar’s 9% away from home. The gap in chance quality is narrower than the difference in goals scored: the hosts’ home xG is 1.23, while the visitors’ away xG is 1.12. Since Ludogorets II concede an average of 1.2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, a draw remains a realistic possibility, but recent form and Nesebar’s away results point to a home win.

The biggest obstacle to BTTS is Nesebar’s attack: the visitors average 0.67 goals per match and have scored just 0.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.71. They have failed to score in 33% of their matches, while Ludogorets II have kept a clean sheet in 38% of theirs. The hosts have considerably greater attacking potential, averaging 2.25 goals and 6.33 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 0.67 goals and 3.67 shots on target, making it plausible that only one team will score. There is still a significant risk to the BTTS - No pick, as both teams scored in 63% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches. However, Nesebar’s recent lack of finishing gives a slight edge to BTTS - No.

Ludogorets II average 2.25 goals at home, while Nesebar score just 0.67 goals away, so the outlook for the visitors remains cautious. Nesebar have scored 3 goals in total across their last 5 matches, with an average xG of 0.71 compared with 1.30 for Ludogorets II. Despite the hosts’ advantage, Nesebar’s matches have finished Under 3.5 goals in 83% of cases, while Ludogorets II’s have done so in 62%. With a projected total of 2.55 goals, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest-backed selection, although the hosts’ scoring ability remains a significant risk.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Ludogorets II were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Nesebar did so in 50% of their recent games. In these matches, the hosts averaged 0.4 goals before half-time, compared with 0.25 for the visitors, pointing to a cautious start. Ludogorets II should have a clearer advantage after the break: they averaged 1.6 second-half goals in their recent matches, while Nesebar conceded 1.25 and scored just 0.25. The hosts also averaged 2.0 goals per match overall, compared with 0.6 for the visitors, making a half-time draw followed by a Ludogorets II win the strongest HT/FT scenario. A home lead at the break remains a significant alternative, as it occurred in 5 of their 8 matches over the full sample.