Ludogorets vs Arda: match statistics

Ludogorets are the favourites: they have won 4 of their 5 home matches and are still unbeaten in the league, while Arda have lost 2 of their last 5 away games. The hosts average 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded at home, while the visitors score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per away match. Ludogorets’ edge in chance creation is reflected in their average home xG of 1.50, compared with Arda’s away xG of 1.25, although both teams have scored in every match under these conditions. Over the last 5 league rounds, Ludogorets have picked up 11 points and conceded 4 goals, while Arda have taken 7 points and conceded 8, further tilting the balance in the hosts’ favour.

Both teams have finished their season matches with goals at both ends in 60% of cases, while in their last 5 matches Ludogorets recorded 80%, compared with Arda’s 60%. The hosts score an average of 1.8 goals per match and have an xG of 1.63, giving them a solid basis for finding the net against an opponent that concedes an average of 1.4 goals. Arda score an average of 1.2 goals and generate an xG of 1.25, so they also have a chance to break down the hosts’ defence, which concedes an average of 1.0 goals. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick comes from Ludogorets’ 40% clean-sheet rate and the average of just 0.8 goals conceded in their last 5 matches. Even so, both teams’ consistent scoring and their results in the BTTS market to date provide a slightly stronger case for goals at both ends.

At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of matches involving both teams, making this the strongest indicator in favour of Over 1.5 goals. Ludogorets average 1.8 goals scored, while Arda concede 1.4, giving the home side a solid basis to score more than once. The visitors average 1.2 goals scored, but Ludogorets concede just 1.0, so I assess their contribution to the total more cautiously. The projected total of 2.70 goals favours Over 1.5, but with both teams seeing Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their matches, the higher line does not offer as strong a signal.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams went into the break level in 60% of their matches so far, while Arda have drawn the first half in 4 of their last 5 games. Over the season, Ludogorets have averaged just 0.4 goals before half-time, although they have raised that average to 1.0 over their last 5 matches. The hosts’ advantage is more pronounced after the break: they score an average of 1.4 goals, while Arda concede 1.0 in this period and lose it in 60% of matches. Ludogorets’ average of 1.8 goals per game compared with Arda’s 1.2, as well as their higher xG of 1.63 versus 1.25, also point to a home win at full-time. However, Arda have averaged 1.2 goals after the break in their last 5 matches, so the HT/FT scenario of a draw at the break followed by a home win is the strongest signal, but not a clear-cut certainty.