Lugano vs Thun: match statistics
Lugano vs Thun: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lugano played Thun in Super League (Switzerland). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Lugano: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Thun: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lugano scores 1.55 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Thun scores 2.32 and concedes 1.13. League average: 3.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lugano 68%, Thun 74%. Over 2.5: Lugano 48%, Thun 81%. League level: BTTS 68%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Thun has higher xG: 1.94 vs 1.46. Lugano: 13.1 shots per match, Thun: 17.7.
Match halves
Lugano: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.81. Thun: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 1.35.
Goals by minute
Lugano: 61-75 (13 goals). Thun: 46-60 (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Super League: 3.27 goals per match, BTTS 68%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Thun is the clear favorite: the team in 1st place has 23 wins this season versus Lugano's 14 (4th place) and has scored 72 goals compared to the hosts' 48. In the last 5 matches Thun has scored 12 goals and averages 2 points per game, while Lugano has 5 goals and only 1 point per game over the same sample. Quality-of-chances metrics also favor Thun: average away xG is 1.9 versus Lugano’s home xG of 1.28, and the visitors record 17.53 shots per game (5.47 on target) versus the hosts’ 11 shots (4.47 on target). Defensively Thun is slightly more stable — conceding 1.07 goals on average away versus Lugano’s 1.20 conceded at home and boasting 27% clean sheets versus the hosts’ 20%. Lugano’s strengths are possession (54% vs 47%) and a higher home shot conversion (18% vs 13%), which reduces the risk of an upset, but the superiority in goals, xG and form (PPG 2 vs 1 in the last 5) argue in favor of an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show very high BTTS rates this season: Lugano 75% and Thun 73%, versus a league average of 68%, indicating that both sides score in the majority of matches. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 80% for Lugano and 100% for Thun; Thun scored 12 goals in those 5 fixtures (avg 2.4), Lugano 5 goals (1.0), while seasonal goals averages are 2.44 for Lugano at home and 2.20 for Thun away. xG supports this outlook: attacking xG is 1.99 for Lugano and 1.90 for Thun, and xG against is 1.65 and 1.50 respectively, so both teams create and concede over 1.5 xG per match. Additionally, clean sheets are rare (13% for Lugano, 27% for Thun), and matches with over 2.5 goals occur in 75% and 87% of cases; the combination of over 2.5 goals and BTTS registers 69% and 73% for the two teams. Given these figures, the strongest signal is BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 85%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculate expected goals as the average of the team's offensive xG and the opponent's defensive xG: (1.99 + 1.50)/2 = 1.745 ≈ 1.74 for Lugano and (1.90 + 1.65)/2 = 1.775 ≈ 1.78 for Thun, giving a combined total of ~3.52 goals. With that total (lambda=3.52) the Poisson distribution yields about a 86.6% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 68.2% for Over 2.5 and about 46.7% for Over 3.5. Seasonal data confirm the tendency: Over 1.5 occurred in 88% of Lugano’s matches and 87% of Thun’s, Over 2.5 in 75% and 87%, and BTTS in 75% and 73% respectively. Form should be considered: Lugano has averaged 1.0 goals in the last 5 matches (vs season 2.44), while Thun averages 2.4 (vs season 2.20) — which partially offsets the home advantage but does not negate the strong scoring signal. Consequently the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (seasonally ~88/87% and modelled ~86.6%), so I recommend a bet on Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Thun leads at the break and ultimately wins), because Thun have a 60% win rate in their last 5 matches and led at the break in 40% of games, whereas Lugano won 20% and led at the break in 0% over the same period. In the first half Thun average 1.0 goals in their last 5 matches, compared to Lugano’s 0.2, suggesting the visitors have the edge before the break. Season-long figures show both teams possess high offensive potential: xG 1.99 for Lugano versus 1.90 for Thun, and season average goals per match 3.63 (Lugano) vs 3.27 (Thun); their games end with goals exchanged in 75% and 73% of cases, respectively. Although Lugano have led at the break in 50% of season matches, the hosts’ last 5-game first-half points average is 0.2 and they were leading in 0% of those games (they trailed at the break in 80% of cases), which is why I assigned 33% to 2/2 and 18% to X/2 as an alternative. Other options (e.g., 1/1 8% or X/X 10%) account for the possibility of a Lugano turnaround after the break—seasonally they score 1.44 goals on average in the second half—but the compiled metrics favor Thun taking the lead at the break and winning.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lugano | Thun | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Thun is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Lugano · 2 pts / match - Thun
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Thun is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1.55 goals / match - Lugano · 2.32 goals / match - Thun
Thun is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.23 goals / match - Lugano · 1.13 goals / match - Thun
Lugano scores in 87% of matches (27 of 31 matches), while Thun keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 31 matches).
Thun scores in 94% of matches (29 of 31 matches), while Lugano keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lugano
Over / Under - Thun
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Thun is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.45 pts / match - Lugano · 1.74 pts / match - Thun
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lugano - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Thun - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 74%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (13 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lugano
Thun
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Super League).
Teams vs league
| Lugano | Liga | Thun | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.77 | 3.27 | ▲ 3.45 |
| Both teams scored | • 68% | 68% | ▲ 74% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 67% | ▲ 81% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 23% | 18% | • 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 74% | 77% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 82% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Lugano 1 - 0 - 1 Thun. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lugano vs Thun?
The Super League match finished Lugano 1:0 Thun. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Lugano and Thun?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Lugano won 1, Thun won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Lugano vs Thun?
Lugano score 1.55 goals per game on average and Thun 2.32. The Super League average is 3.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Lugano's matches and 74% of Thun's.
What form are Lugano and Thun in?
Over the last 5 games Lugano have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Thun 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lugano vs Thun?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lugano vs Thun: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.