Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Atlético CP: match statistics

Lusitano Évora 1911 come into this match in clearly better current form: they have collected 7 points from their last 5 games, thanks to 3 wins and a draw, while Atlético CP have picked up 6 points. The hosts scored 6 goals and conceded only 4 during this period, giving them a positive goal difference, whereas the visitors scored 5 and conceded 5. Atlético CP do sit 1st in the table, but they have suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 appearances, making their current trend less stable than the hosts’ run. Lusitano have won 3 of their last 4 matches without defeat before the final loss, which, combined with home advantage, points to a slight preference for the hosts. The lack of detailed season data on home and away performances limits the extent of this advantage, so a draw remains a realistic scenario.

The best choice is BTTS - No, although this scenario does not have a significant edge. In their last 5 matches, Lusitano Évora recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Atlético CP did so in only 40%, which points to a mixed rather than clearly goal-oriented picture. The hosts conceded just 0.8 goals per match on average, while the visitors scored an average of 1.0, so Atlético may struggle to consistently break down their opponents' defence. Both teams have scored at moderate rates—1.2 and 1.0 goals per game respectively—and together they recorded only 11 goals across their last five appearances. Atlético's xG stands at 1.28, but Lusitano allowed opponents just 1.02 xG, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The available data from the last 5 matches points to a moderate tempo: Lusitano averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Atlético scored and conceded 1.0 goal per game. In total, matches involving both teams during this period produced an average of 2.0 goals, while the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 40% of matches for each team. The xG figures are closely matched and suggest a balanced game without a clear attacking advantage: 1.22 vs. 1.02 for the home side and 1.28 vs. 0.90 for the away side. The projected total of 2.10 goals leaves a substantial margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest signal, with an 83% rating.

Lusitano Évora were leading at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Atlético CP took the lead in only 20% of their games. The hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors scored just 0.2 goals, failing to find the net before half-time in 80% of those matches. Lusitano’s advantage is also evident in the full-time results: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, compared with Atlético’s 2 defeats and 1.2 points per match. The risk of surrendering the lead after the break remains significant, as the hosts scored only 0.2 goals per match in the second half; however, the visitors’ weaker first-half performances make the HT/FT 1/1 scenario—the most likely outcome, with Lusitano leading at the break and holding on to win—particularly plausible.