Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: match statistics
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mainz 05 played Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Mewa Arena. Final score: 3:4.
Current form
Mainz 05: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Bayer Leverkusen: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mainz 05 scores 2.50 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Bayer Leverkusen scores 2.50 and concedes 1.25. League average: 3.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mainz 05 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 50%. Over 2.5: Mainz 05 75%, Bayer Leverkusen 75%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 78%.
xG, shots and style
Bayer Leverkusen has higher xG: 2.30 vs 1.99. Mainz 05: 18.3 shots per match, Bayer Leverkusen: 22.5.
Match halves
Mainz 05: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.50. Bayer Leverkusen: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 1.50.
Goals by minute
Mainz 05: 76-90+ (5 goals). Bayer Leverkusen: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.81 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 78%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 4.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bayer Leverkusen are slight favourites thanks to their more effective away performances: they score an average of 2 goals per match on the road, while Mainz manage just 0.5 goals at home. The visitors average 25.5 shots away from home and post an xG of 2.44, compared with the hosts’ 19.5 shots and 2.08 xG at home. However, Mainz have reason for optimism: they have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, one more than Bayer, and both teams have won 3 games over that period. The visitors’ away defensive record calls for a more cautious assessment of their chances, as they concede an average of 2.5 goals per match on the road, compared with Mainz’s 1.5 at home. Bayer’s superior away attacking efficiency outweighs this risk, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams regularly create chances: Mainz average 2.15 xG at home, while Bayer average 2.44 xG away, pointing to goals at both ends. Mainz score an average of 3.0 goals at home, while Bayer concede 2.5 away, making a Mainz goal look particularly likely. The visitors average 2.0 goals away, although Mainz have yet to concede at home, which is the strongest argument against BTTS - Yes. However, both sides have had BTTS land in 40% of their last 5 matches, so the case for BTTS - Yes is moderate rather than compelling.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Mainz average 3.0 goals at home, while Bayer concede 2.5 away from home, which points to goals for the hosts. The visitors also have attacking potential: their away xG is 2.44, although Mainz have yet to concede at home. Over their last five matches, Mainz averaged 2.6 goals and Bayer 2.4; at least three goals were scored in 80% and 60% of those games, respectively. A forecast of 3.5 total goals supports the case for a high-scoring game, but given Mainz's strong defence, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick, with an estimated probability of 86%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mainz led at the break in both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals in the first half and conceding none; Bayer conceded an average of 1.0 goal before half-time in their two away matches. The hosts won both home games, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors have yet to win away and conceded an average of 2.5 goals. Mainz’s advantage is also supported by their shots on target: 8.0 per home match compared with Bayer’s 4.5 away, which points to a potential lead being maintained after the break. The most likely scenario, therefore, is Mainz leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes. However, the advantage is not decisive: Bayer led at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches overall, and their away xG stands at 2.44 compared with Mainz’s 2.15 at home; moreover, the home and away statistics are based on just two matches each.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bayer Leverkusen is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 1.25 goals / match - Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 05 scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Bayer Leverkusen keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
Bayer Leverkusen scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Bayer Leverkusen
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bayer Leverkusen is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Mainz 05 · 2.25 pts / match - Bayer Leverkusen
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Bayer Leverkusen - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 50%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 75% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 25% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 25% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.00 | 3.81 | • 3.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 75% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 24% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Bayer LeverkusenSubstitutionOn: Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández CarballoOff: Aleix García Serrano
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Mainz 05 0 - 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen. Average goals 4.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 3:4 Bayer Leverkusen. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mainz 05 won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz 05 score 2.50 goals per game on average and Bayer Leverkusen 2.50. The Bundesliga average is 3.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 78% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Mainz 05's matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Bayer Leverkusen 2-1-1 (1.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.