Mariehamn vs Ilves: match statistics
Mariehamn vs Ilves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mariehamn played Ilves in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Mariehamn: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Ilves: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mariehamn scores 0.80 and concedes 1.88 goals per match. Ilves scores 1.68 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.48 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mariehamn 40%, Ilves 56%. Over 2.5: Mariehamn 48%, Ilves 64%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Ilves has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.14. Mariehamn: 9.5 shots per match, Ilves: 11.6.
Match halves
Mariehamn: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.40. Ilves: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.84.
Goals by minute
Mariehamn: 61-75 (6 goals). Ilves: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.48 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ilves have a slight edge thanks to their more effective attack: away from home, they average 1.67 goals and generate 1.51 xG, while Mariehamn average 0.83 goals and 1.20 xG at home. The visitors also average 4.83 shots on target per away match, compared with 3.58 for the hosts, and Mariehamn have failed to score in 42% of their home games. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals over that period, but Ilves have conceded just 4, compared with 6 for the hosts. The away pick remains cautious, as Ilves have lost 58% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.17 goals in them, giving Mariehamn a genuine chance of picking up points.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Ilves have recorded BTTS in 75% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.17 goals on the road, significantly increasing the chances of Mariehamn finding the net. The hosts score an average of 1.69 goals at home and have failed to score in just 8% of those matches. Ilves also have attacking credentials: they average 1.67 goals away from home, with an xG of 1.51 compared with the 1.53 xG conceded by Mariehamn. However, caution is warranted: Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their home matches, while the hosts’ BTTS rate is only 38%. Even so, the combination of both teams’ effective attacking play and Ilves’ weak away defence gives a moderate edge to BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been reached in 69% of Mariehamn matches and as many as 92% of Ilves matches. The hosts score an average of 1.69 goals, while the visitors concede 2.17, increasing the chances of Mariehamn scoring. Ilves average 1.67 goals scored, although Mariehamn concede just 0.92 and keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches, so the outlook for the visitors is more cautious. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored, and Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of each team’s matches. The projected total of 3.10 goals supports the selected bet, while the 2.5 and 3.5 lines require greater scoring efficiency and offer a weaker signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mariehamn have won 62% of their matches, while Ilves have lost 58%, giving the hosts a clear edge in the full-time result forecast. Mariehamn’s chances of taking a lead at the break are supported by an average of 0.85 goals scored in the first half and just 0.38 conceded; Ilves concede an average of 1.42 goals before half-time. The hosts were leading at the break in 46% of their matches, while the visitors were trailing at that stage in 33%. Across full matches, Mariehamn concede an average of 0.92 goals compared with 2.17 for Ilves, making the hosts hold on to their lead the most likely single scenario. However, the risk of a turnaround remains significant, as Ilves have averaged 1.4 goals after the break in their last five matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mariehamn | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ilves is 110% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - Mariehamn · 1.68 goals / match - Ilves
Ilves is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.88 goals / match - Mariehamn · 1.52 goals / match - Ilves
Mariehamn scores in 52% of matches (13 of 25 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
Ilves scores in 88% of matches (22 of 25 matches), while Mariehamn keeps a clean sheet in 12% (3 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mariehamn
Over / Under - Ilves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 58% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.96 pts / match - Mariehamn · 1.52 pts / match - Ilves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mariehamn - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -12 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mariehamn
Ilves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Mariehamn | Liga | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.68 | 2.48 | ▲ 3.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 48% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 48% | 44% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 73% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 72% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Mariehamn 1 - 1 - 2 Ilves. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mariehamn vs Ilves?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Mariehamn 1:1 Ilves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Mariehamn won 1, Ilves won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn score 0.80 goals per game on average and Ilves 1.68. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.48 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Mariehamn's matches and 56% of Ilves's.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Over the last 5 games Mariehamn have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Ilves 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mariehamn vs Ilves: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.