Marines vs Mukura: match statistics
Marines display solid home form with 45% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium, which gives them a significant advantage over the visitors. The hosts show better attacking efficiency in home matches (1.27 goals on average) than Mukura away (0.93 goals on average), as well as a better shot conversion rate (17% vs 14%). Mukura has a weaker away record with 36% losses and only 29% wins, which is confirmed by a negative goal difference (-3) in away matches. Marines also boast a positive goal difference (+4) in home games and a higher percentage of clean sheets (36% vs 21%). Considering the hosts' advantage in key home statistics and Mukura's weaker away form, the most likely scenario is a Marines win, although a draw is also possible due to even possession (46% vs 48%) and similar xG values for both teams.
Marines vs Mukura: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Marines played Mukura in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 21 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Marines: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Mukura: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Marines scores 1.25 and concedes 1.17 goals per match. Mukura scores 1.08 and concedes 0.96. League average: 2.08 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Marines 54%, Mukura 54%. Over 2.5: Marines 38%, Mukura 29%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Marines has higher xG: 1.20 vs 1.06. Marines: 7.3 shots per match, Mukura: 5.5.
Match halves
Marines: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50. Mukura: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Marines: 31-45+ (12 goals). Mukura: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.08 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Marines display solid home form with 45% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium, which gives them a significant advantage over the visitors. The hosts show better attacking efficiency in home matches (1.27 goals on average) than Mukura away (0.93 goals on average), as well as a better shot conversion rate (17% vs 14%). Mukura has a weaker away record with 36% losses and only 29% wins, which is confirmed by a negative goal difference (-3) in away matches. Marines also boast a positive goal difference (+4) in home games and a higher percentage of clean sheets (36% vs 21%). Considering the hosts' advantage in key home statistics and Mukura's weaker away form, the most likely scenario is a Marines win, although a draw is also possible due to even possession (46% vs 48%) and similar xG values for both teams.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Marines | Mukura | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mukura is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Marines · 1.4 pts / match - Mukura
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Marines is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Marines · 1.08 goals / match - Mukura
Mukura is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.17 goals / match - Marines · 0.96 goals / match - Mukura
Marines scores in 83% of matches (20 of 24 matches), while Mukura keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 matches).
Mukura scores in 83% of matches (20 of 24 matches), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Marines
Over / Under - Mukura
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Marines is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.79 pts / match - Marines · 1.25 pts / match - Mukura
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Marines - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 38%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mukura - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Marines
Mukura
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Marines | Liga | Mukura | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.42 | 2.08 | • 2.04 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 46% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 38% | 35% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 34% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 62% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 70% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- MarinesGoalTaïba Mbonyumwami
- MarinesGoalTaïba Mbonyumwami
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Marines 0 - 0 - 1 Mukura. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Marines vs Mukura?
The National Soccer League match finished Marines 3:1 Mukura. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Marines vs Mukura?
Marines score 1.25 goals per game on average and Mukura 1.08. The National Soccer League average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Marines's matches and 54% of Mukura's.
What form are Marines and Mukura in?
Over the last 5 games Marines have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Mukura 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Marines vs Mukura?
The statistical background for Marines vs Mukura — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.