Mbarara City vs Calvary: match statistics
Despite a lower table position, Mbarara City clearly outperforms Calvary in terms of form and efficiency. The hosts have a -2 goal difference at home, whereas the visitors concede an average of 2.13 goals away while scoring only 0.38, resulting in a disastrous -14 balance. Calvary has not won a single away match this season (0% success rate) and has failed to score in 75% of away fixtures. Mbarara boasts better xG statistics (1.54 vs 1.12), higher shot efficiency, and superior possession, which, given the visitors' poor disposition, should translate into a home win. The form of both teams in the last five matches also favors Mbarara City, who earned 5 points compared to just 1 point for Calvary.
Mbarara City vs Calvary: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mbarara City played Calvary in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match was played on 12 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Mbarara City: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Calvary: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mbarara City scores 0.87 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Calvary scores 0.40 and concedes 1.67. League average: 2.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mbarara City 67%, Calvary 27%. Over 2.5: Mbarara City 33%, Calvary 27%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Mbarara City has higher xG: 1.36 vs 1.22. Mbarara City: 7.7 shots per match, Calvary: 4.3.
Match halves
Mbarara City: half-time lead 7%, second-half goals 0.47. Calvary: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.20.
Goals by minute
Mbarara City: 16-30 (4 goals). Calvary: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.24 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Despite a lower table position, Mbarara City clearly outperforms Calvary in terms of form and efficiency. The hosts have a -2 goal difference at home, whereas the visitors concede an average of 2.13 goals away while scoring only 0.38, resulting in a disastrous -14 balance. Calvary has not won a single away match this season (0% success rate) and has failed to score in 75% of away fixtures. Mbarara boasts better xG statistics (1.54 vs 1.12), higher shot efficiency, and superior possession, which, given the visitors' poor disposition, should translate into a home win. The form of both teams in the last five matches also favors Mbarara City, who earned 5 points compared to just 1 point for Calvary.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mbarara City | Calvary | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mbarara City is 400% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Mbarara City · 0.2 pts / match - Calvary
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbarara City is 117% better for: goals scored per match.
0.87 goals / match - Mbarara City · 0.4 goals / match - Calvary
Mbarara City scores in 73% of matches (11 of 15 matches), while Calvary keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
Calvary scores in 27% of matches (4 of 15 matches), while Mbarara City keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mbarara City
Over / Under - Calvary
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mbarara City is 70% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.8 pts / match - Mbarara City · 0.47 pts / match - Calvary
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mbarara City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 7% of matches and wins 13%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Calvary - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mbarara City
Calvary
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Mbarara City | Liga | Calvary | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.53 | 2.24 | ▼ 2.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 42% | ▼ 27% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 39% | ▼ 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 36% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 61% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 60% | ▼ 40% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mbarara City 0 - 1 - 0 Calvary. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mbarara City vs Calvary?
The Uganda Premier League match finished Mbarara City 1:0 Calvary. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mbarara City vs Calvary?
Mbarara City score 0.87 goals per game on average and Calvary 0.40. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Mbarara City's matches and 27% of Calvary's.
What form are Mbarara City and Calvary in?
Over the last 5 games Mbarara City have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Calvary 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mbarara City vs Calvary?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mbarara City vs Calvary: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.