Mebrat Hayl vs Adama Kenema: match statistics

Although Adama Kenema sit 1st in the table and Mebrat Hayl are 12th, results from the last five matches point to a closely contested game. The hosts have picked up 8 points in that period with 2 wins and 2 draws, while the visitors have collected 7 points from 2 wins and 2 defeats. Both teams have scored 5 goals, but Mebrat Hayl have conceded 4, compared with Adama Kenema's 6, giving the hosts a slight defensive edge. The visitors' position at the top of the table is in their favour, but recent results do not suggest a clear advantage for either side, making a draw the most likely outcome. The lack of reliable data on finishing and chance quality in home and away matches limits confidence in this prediction.

In their last 5 matches, both teams averaged 1.0 goals per game, which provides little basis for expecting goals from both sides. BTTS occurred in 60% of Mebrat Hayl’s recent matches, but in only 40% of Adama Kenema’s, making the signal from recent results inconclusive. The hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals during this period, compared with 1.2 for their opponents, slightly reducing the visitors’ chances of scoring. Average attacking xG is also moderate: 1.06 for Mebrat Hayl and 1.11 for Adama Kenema. With goal output so evenly matched but relatively low, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

In their last 5 matches, both teams averaged 1.0 goals scored, while Mebrat Hayl’s games averaged 1.8 goals compared with 2.2 in Adama Kenema’s matches. Over this period, the hosts’ xG was 1.06 and the visitors’ was 1.11, also pointing to a moderate number of chances. Only 40% of each team’s last 5 matches finished with at least 3 goals, so the forecast of 2.12 goals favors Under 3.5. This is the strongest pick among the lines considered, although the lack of reliable full-season data increases the uncertainty of the forecast.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Mebrat Hayl were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Adama Kenema were level in 2 of 5. In the second halves, the hosts averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while the visitors scored just 0.2 and conceded 0.8. This points to a scenario in which Mebrat Hayl break the deadlock after the break and win, although a draw at full-time remains a significant alternative. Across their last 5 matches, the hosts averaged 1.6 points per game compared with the visitors’ 1.4, but Adama Kenema led at the break in 2 of 5 matches, so the hosts’ advantage is not decisive. Both teams’ season figures are zero and do not provide a reliable basis for assessing form, so the forecast is based mainly on their last 5 appearances.