Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar: match statistics
Melbourne Victory FC displays significantly better home form with a 57% win rate at home and a positive goal difference of +7 in matches in front of their own fans. The hosts score an average of 2 goals per match in home games with an xG of 1.96, indicating a consistently effective offense. Brisbane Roar is in terrible form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceding as many as 12 goals during this period, while their away form is poor with only a 33% win rate and a negative goal difference of -3. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.96 vs 1.34), and Brisbane has defensive issues in away matches, conceding an average of 1.33 goals per game. Considering Melbourne's advantage at their home stadium and the visitors' form crisis, a home win appears to be the most likely scenario, although Brisbane is capable of scoring goals, which leaves room for a draw or an upset.
Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Melbourne Victory FC played Brisbane Roar in A-League (Australia). The match was played on 14 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Melbourne Victory FC: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Brisbane Roar: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Melbourne Victory FC scores 1.44 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. Brisbane Roar scores 1.00 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Melbourne Victory FC 38%, Brisbane Roar 47%. Over 2.5: Melbourne Victory FC 50%, Brisbane Roar 53%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Melbourne Victory FC has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.40. Melbourne Victory FC: 16.9 shots per match, Brisbane Roar: 13.4.
Match halves
Melbourne Victory FC: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.94. Brisbane Roar: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
Melbourne Victory FC: 46-60 (7 goals). Brisbane Roar: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
A-League: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Melbourne Victory FC displays significantly better home form with a 57% win rate at home and a positive goal difference of +7 in matches in front of their own fans. The hosts score an average of 2 goals per match in home games with an xG of 1.96, indicating a consistently effective offense. Brisbane Roar is in terrible form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceding as many as 12 goals during this period, while their away form is poor with only a 33% win rate and a negative goal difference of -3. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.96 vs 1.34), and Brisbane has defensive issues in away matches, conceding an average of 1.33 goals per game. Considering Melbourne's advantage at their home stadium and the visitors' form crisis, a home win appears to be the most likely scenario, although Brisbane is capable of scoring goals, which leaves room for a draw or an upset.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Melbourne Victory FC | Brisbane Roar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Melbourne Victory FC is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Melbourne Victory FC · 0.6 pts / match - Brisbane Roar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Melbourne Victory FC is 44% better for: goals scored per match.
1.44 goals / match - Melbourne Victory FC · 1 goals / match - Brisbane Roar
Melbourne Victory FC scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Brisbane Roar keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
Brisbane Roar scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while Melbourne Victory FC keeps a clean sheet in 31% (5 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Melbourne Victory FC
Over / Under - Brisbane Roar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Brisbane Roar is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - Melbourne Victory FC · 1.35 pts / match - Brisbane Roar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Melbourne Victory FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Brisbane Roar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Melbourne Victory FC
Brisbane Roar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (A-League).
Teams vs league
| Melbourne Victory FC | Liga | Brisbane Roar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.75 | 2.82 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 57% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 31% | 25% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Melbourne Victory FC 0 - 0 - 1 Brisbane Roar. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar?
The A-League match finished Melbourne Victory FC 1:1 Brisbane Roar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne Victory FC score 1.44 goals per game on average and Brisbane Roar 1.00. The A-League average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Melbourne Victory FC's matches and 47% of Brisbane Roar's.
What form are Melbourne Victory FC and Brisbane Roar in?
Over the last 5 games Melbourne Victory FC have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Brisbane Roar 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar?
The statistical background for Melbourne Victory FC vs Brisbane Roar — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.