Mezőkövesd-Zsóry vs Ajka: match statistics

Mezőkövesd sits 4th in the table while Ajka are 12th; this season the hosts have scored 35 goals versus 20 for the visitors, indicating a clear offensive edge for the home side. In home matches Mezőkövesd averages 10.55 shots and 4.09 on target with 55% possession, whereas Ajka away averages 9.17 shots and 3.0 on target with 50% possession, and the conversion rate is 9% versus 7% for Ajka. Although the xG figures are similar (1.30 xG for Mezőkövesd vs 1.24 xG for Ajka), the hosts concede 1.27 xG against at home on average and concede 0.83 goals with 58% of matches keeping a clean sheet, while Ajka register 1.75 xG against on the road and concede 0.92 goals, indicating greater vulnerability for the visitors. Ajka however have the better form in the last 5 matches (3 wins and an average 2.0 points per game) versus Mezőkövesd (2 wins and 1.2 points per game), so the visitors arrive in good shape. Considering the home advantage in possession, shot volume and accuracy, and a more solid home defence, I forecast a Mezőkövesd win; probability estimated as Home 58%, Draw 22%, Ajka 20%.

Ajka has a season BTTS rate of only 17% and keeps a clean sheet in 42% of matches, with an average of 0.67 goals scored per game — a strong signal against a Goal/Goal scenario. Mezőkövesd at home has a season BTTS of 50%, averages 0.86 goals scored and concedes 1.43 goals per match; their xG is 1.34 while Ajka’s average xG against is 1.75, indicating the hosts create chances but do not necessarily convert them into goals. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for Mezőkövesd in 20% of games and for Ajka in 40%; this is a drop for the hosts versus their season 50% and a rise for Ajka versus their season 17%. Additionally, Ajka shows low shot efficiency (conversion 7%) and averages 3.0 shots on target per game, and the league BTTS is generally 48%, placing this match closer to a low-scoring pattern rather than a typical high-BTTS fixture. Considering Ajka’s high clean sheet rate (42%), low goals average (0.67) and the hosts’ reduced BTTS in form, I assess the probability of BTTS - Yes at 30% and No Goal at 70%, therefore I tip No Goal.

xG and defensive analysis shows Mezőkövesd has an attacking xG of 1.34 and Ajka 1.24, while xG against is 1.60 (home) and 1.75 (away), which averaged yields an expected 1.55 goals for Mezőkövesd and 1.42 for Ajka (total 2.97). Over the season Mezőkövesd scores 0.86 goals per match and Ajka 0.67, but low shot conversion rates (8% vs 7%) suggest part of that difference may regress toward xG. A Poisson model with combined λ≈2.97 produces probabilities of roughly 80% for at least 2 goals and ~57% for at least 3 goals, hence a strong signal for Over 1.5 goals and a moderate signal for Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, Mezőkövesd has 64% of matches over 1.5 goals vs 33% for Ajka, while average shots 10.0 vs 9.17 and shots on target 3.33 vs 3.0 indicate a sufficient number of goal-scoring opportunities. Consequently I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the preferred line (strongest signal); Over 2.5 remains an option with lower confidence (~57%).

Mezőkövesd led at the break in 6 of 14 matches (43%) and scores an average of 0.57 goals by half-time versus Ajka’s 0.17, suggesting a higher probability of the home side leading after 45 minutes. However, Ajka are in better form (last 5: W W W L D — 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and have a stronger second half: Ajka earn 1.33 points after the break compared to the home side’s 0.64, with second-half wins in 33% of Ajka’s matches versus 7% for Mezőkövesd. Additionally, Mezőkövesd concedes an average of 0.86 goals after the break and have shipped as many as 5 goals in minutes 46–60, while Ajka have conceded just 1 in that period, indicating a risk of a turnaround against the home lead early in the second half. On that basis the strongest signal is Mezőkövesd leading at half-time and Ajka winning the match (HT/FT: 1/2).