Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad: match statistics
Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Middelfart played Aarhus Fremad in 1st Division (Denmark). The match was played on 1 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Middelfart: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Aarhus Fremad: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Middelfart scores 0.93 and concedes 2.37 goals per match. Aarhus Fremad scores 1.52 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Middelfart 59%, Aarhus Fremad 56%. Over 2.5: Middelfart 70%, Aarhus Fremad 52%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Aarhus Fremad has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.21. Middelfart: 10.0 shots per match, Aarhus Fremad: 14.1.
Match halves
Middelfart: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.41. Aarhus Fremad: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Middelfart: 0-15 (7 goals). Aarhus Fremad: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1st Division: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-2. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Aarhus Fremad are favorites for this match: the visitors have scored 41 goals this season versus Middelfart’s 25 and conceded only 35 compared to the hosts’ 64, giving them an advantage both offensively and defensively. In their last 5 matches Middelfart have 0 wins and 5 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 20, while Aarhus have 2 wins, 9 scored and 8 conceded (PPG 1.2). The visitors create clearly better attacking opportunities — away average xG 1.72 versus the hosts’ 1.23, and on average 15 shots and 5.31 on target per match versus Middelfart’s 10 shots and 3.85 on target. Aarhus also defend more effectively away (1.54 goals conceded per match vs 2.31 for the hosts) and register higher possession (58% vs 50%), so I back the away win (65%), assess the draw at 20% and the home victory at 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal and league statistics support BTTS - Yes: Middelfart has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57%, Aarhus Fremad 54%, and the league-wide percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 56%. In the last 5 meetings both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of matches, confirming the recent trend. Crucial is the hosts' dire recent defensive form — Middelfart conceded 20 goals in 5 matches (avg 4.0 per match) and 64 this season, while Aarhus scored 9 goals in those 5 matches (1.8 per match) and 41 this season. Both teams generate similar chances (attacking xG 1.58 vs 1.72) and a comparable number of shots on target (5.14 vs 5.31), and low clean sheet rates of 21% and 15% further increase the likelihood both will be involved in goal scoring. Based on this, I tip BTTS = Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model combining attacking xG and defending xG yields 1.55 xG for Middelfart (1.58 xG attacking vs 1.51 xG conceded by Aarhus) and 1.44 xG for Aarhus Fremad (1.72 xG attacking vs 1.15 xG conceded by Middelfart), totaling around 2.99 expected goals. This season Middelfart’s matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 64% of cases, Aarhus in 38%, but in the last 5 matches these rates rose to 80% (Middelfart) and 60% (Aarhus), indicating a higher probability of Over 2.5 goals. Middelfart averages 2.0 goals at home with a 15% conversion from 5.14 shots on target, while Aarhus records 1.0 goals away with a 7% conversion from 5.31 shots on target; additionally Middelfart have conceded 64 goals and Aarhus scored 41, pointing to open football. The percentage of matches with Both Teams to Score is 57% for Middelfart and 54% for Aarhus, further boosting the chance of goals from both sides. Based on this, I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest play given the 2.99 expected goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side has a clear advantage in the first half: they lead at the break in 36% of matches (5 of 14), scoring on average 0.93 goals by half-time while conceding 0.43, whereas Aarhus only manages 0.31 goals by half-time and concedes 0.77. The hosts’ HTPPG is 1.43 versus 0.69 for the visitors. Across the season Middelfart averages 2.0 goals per game compared to Aarhus’s 1.0 and wins 43% of fixtures versus the visitors’ 15%; the home team’s shot conversion rate of 15% versus the visitors’ 7% increases the likelihood that a lead at the break will translate into a full-time victory. xG slightly favors Aarhus (xG 1.72 versus the hosts’ 1.58), indicating the visitors create chances but their lower finishing efficiency limits their realistic goal potential. One must factor in Middelfart’s poor form over the last five matches (5 losses, 0 wins, conceding on average 4.0 goals), so I assign moderate weight to draw scenarios and the risk of a turnaround. As a result, the strongest signal is the home side leading at half-time and maintaining the win through full-time (1/1), hence my pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Middelfart | Aarhus Fremad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aarhus Fremad is 63% better for: goals scored per match.
0.93 goals / match - Middelfart · 1.52 goals / match - Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad is 82% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.37 goals / match - Middelfart · 1.3 goals / match - Aarhus Fremad
Middelfart scores in 63% of matches (17 of 27 matches), while Aarhus Fremad keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
Aarhus Fremad scores in 63% of matches (17 of 27 matches), while Middelfart keeps a clean sheet in 7% (2 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Middelfart
Over / Under - Aarhus Fremad
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aarhus Fremad is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.85 pts / match - Middelfart · 1.07 pts / match - Aarhus Fremad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Middelfart - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 7%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Aarhus Fremad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -13 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Middelfart
Aarhus Fremad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1st Division).
Teams vs league
| Middelfart | Liga | Aarhus Fremad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.30 | 2.76 | • 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 54% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 7% | 26% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 74% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 79% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Middelfart 0 - 1 - 2 Aarhus Fremad. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad?
The 1st Division match finished Middelfart 0:1 Aarhus Fremad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Middelfart and Aarhus Fremad?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Middelfart won 0, Aarhus Fremad won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 5.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad?
Middelfart score 0.93 goals per game on average and Aarhus Fremad 1.52. The 1st Division average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Middelfart's matches and 56% of Aarhus Fremad's.
What form are Middelfart and Aarhus Fremad in?
Over the last 5 games Middelfart have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Aarhus Fremad 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad?
The statistical background for Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.