Middelfart vs HB Køge: match statistics
Middelfart vs HB Køge: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Middelfart played HB Køge in 1st Division (Denmark). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 0:4.
Current form
Middelfart: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. HB Køge: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Middelfart scores 0.97 and concedes 2.28 goals per match. HB Køge scores 1.31 and concedes 1.59. League average: 2.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Middelfart 59%, HB Køge 62%. Over 2.5: Middelfart 69%, HB Køge 55%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
HB Køge has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.21. Middelfart: 9.9 shots per match, HB Køge: 12.7.
Match halves
Middelfart: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.45. HB Køge: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Middelfart: 0-15 (8 goals). HB Køge: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1st Division: 2.77 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2). HB Køge has recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 5, averaging 2.2 points per game. Middelfart have 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 15 (averaging 3.0 goals conceded per game) and concede on average 2.21 goals per home game this season. In terms of quality of chances xG is similar (1.20 for the home side vs 1.24 for the away side), but HB Køge attempts more shots (11.14 vs 9.71), has better conversion (12% vs 10%) and a lower share of games without a goal (21% vs 36%). Therefore, given the advantage in form and efficiency I estimate probabilities of 60% for HB Køge, 22% for a draw and 18% for Middelfart.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick BTTS 'Yes' (80%) vs 'No' (20%) because HB Køge has a season BTTS rate of 79% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Middelfart, despite a season BTTS of 47%, has 60% in their last 5. Middelfart conceded 15 goals in their last 5 matches (3.0 avg) and has a recent xG_against of 2.1, significantly increasing opponents' scoring chances; HB Køge scored 8 goals in those 5 matches (1.6 avg) with a recent xG_for of 1.45. Seasonally HB Køge concedes 2.07 goals per game, and Middelfart scores 1.33 on average, with Middelfart xG_for 1.59 vs xG_against_away 1.61 – both teams create scoring opportunities. Middelfart averages 14.2 shots and 4.8 on target, HB Køge 11.14 and 3.64 with conversion rates 9% vs 12%, confirming a realistic chance of goals from both sides. Additionally the league BTTS average is 55% and HB Køge has only 7% clean sheets seasonally, so the strongest signal in the data points to BTTS 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Strong signal for Over 1.5: Middelfart has 80% of matches over 1.5 goals, and HB Køge 93%, so both teams regularly exceed this threshold. From an xG perspective I expect about 1.60 goals for the home side (xG_for 1.59 vs xG_against_away 1.61) and 1.39 for the visitors (xG_for 1.24 vs xG_against_home 1.54), totaling ~2.99 expected goals and supporting Over 2.5. In the last 5 matches Middelfart conceded on average 3.0 goals (15 conceded), while HB Køge scored on average 1.6 goals (8 scored), which confirms the likelihood of goals from both sides. HB Køge also has 79% of matches with Both Teams to Score and only 7% clean sheets, so the visitors frequently take part in high-scoring games. As a result the strongest and best signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5), the 2.5 line also has solid backing (~70% probability), whereas Over 3.5 remains considerably less certain (~38%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-time statistics favor a draw: Middelfart average 0.53 goals by the break compared to HB Køge’s 0.43, and the hosts record a half-time draw in 53% of matches (leading at the break in 33%). Over 90 minutes Middelfart have a clear edge — averaging 1.33 goals and 1.6 points per match versus HB Køge’s 1.29 goals and 0.93 points, while the visitors concede 2.07 goals per game on average, which supports a home victory after the break. The advantage is confirmed by xG: 1.59 for Middelfart against 1.24 for HB Køge, and more shots and shots on target (14.2 and 4.8 versus 11.14 and 3.64), so the hosts create more chances. HB Køge, however, have 79% of matches with both teams scoring, and second halves are rarely goalless (second half with goals: Middelfart 93%, HB Køge 86%), so I expect an open and decisive second half. Therefore my strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Middelfart win after the break (HT/FT X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Middelfart | HB Køge | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
HB Køge is 267% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Middelfart · 2.2 pts / match - HB Køge
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
HB Køge is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Middelfart · 1.31 goals / match - HB Køge
HB Køge is 43% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.28 goals / match - Middelfart · 1.59 goals / match - HB Køge
Middelfart scores in 62% of matches (18 of 29 matches), while HB Køge keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
HB Køge scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while Middelfart keeps a clean sheet in 7% (2 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Middelfart
Over / Under - HB Køge
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
HB Køge is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.93 pts / match - Middelfart · 1.24 pts / match - HB Køge
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Middelfart - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 10%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
HB Køge - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Middelfart
HB Køge
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1st Division).
Teams vs league
| Middelfart | Liga | HB Køge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.24 | 2.77 | ▲ 2.90 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 56% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 7% | 26% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 74% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 79% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Middelfart 1 - 1 - 1 HB Køge. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Middelfart vs HB Køge?
The 1st Division match finished Middelfart 0:4 HB Køge. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Middelfart and HB Køge?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Middelfart won 1, HB Køge won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Middelfart vs HB Køge?
Middelfart score 0.97 goals per game on average and HB Køge 1.31. The 1st Division average is 2.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Middelfart's matches and 62% of HB Køge's.
What form are Middelfart and HB Køge in?
Over the last 5 games Middelfart have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and HB Køge 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Middelfart vs HB Køge?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.