Modena vs Empoli: match statistics

Modena sit higher in the table and have scored 6 goals while conceding just 3 across the competition, compared with Empoli’s 3:4 record. The hosts have picked up 7 points from their last five matches, exactly the same as their opponents, but their key advantage is significantly greater control at home: 62% possession and an average of 43 shots, including 10 on target. The quality of the chances created also strongly favors Modena, whose average home xG is as high as 4.01 compared with Empoli’s 1.17 away from home. Empoli can be effective on the road, averaging 1 goal per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of such fixtures, but they also allow opponents chances worth 1.52 xG and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Modena’s poor home finishing, having failed to score so far despite a significant xG advantage, increases the risk of a draw; however, the scale of their superiority in chance creation points to a home win as the more likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Modena average just 0.5 goals in home matches and have not yet recorded a game in which both teams scored. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, while Empoli average 1.0 goal away from home, with just 2.0 shots on target per match. Empoli also have a 50% clean-sheet rate, while Modena have failed to score in 50% of their home matches, clearly increasing the risk that one side will remain without a goal. Modena’s last five matches have been more open, with BTTS at 60% and xG of 1.91, but Empoli scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, with an xG of 1.04. Although the league-wide BTTS average is 60%, Modena’s poor home scoring record and the visitors’ limited attacking potential support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.50 goals remains clearly below this line. Modena have averaged 1.6 goals in their last five matches, while Empoli have averaged 0.8, indicating moderate attacking potential from the visitors. However, the hosts created chances worth 1.91 xG per match, while Empoli allowed opponents 1.49 xG, making one or two Modena goals a realistic scenario. On the other hand, Empoli recorded only 1.04 xG during this period, while Modena conceded an average of 1.2 goals, so a four-goal game is difficult to expect. In Empoli’s last five matches, only 20% went over the 2.5-goal line, and the overall profile of both teams supports a result in the 1-3 goals range rather than an open, high-scoring game.

Modena has a clearer first-half profile: they were leading at the break in 50% of their matches so far, whereas Empoli have yet to do so, while the visitors were level at half-time in 100% of their games. The hosts score an average of 0.5 goals before the break and concede none, while Empoli have also yet to score in this period. In their last five matches, Modena were leading at half-time in 40% of cases, compared with just 20% for Empoli, and their average number of goals before the interval is 0.8 versus 0.2 for their opponents. After the interval, the hosts won 60% of their last five second halves and scored an average of 0.8 goals, while Empoli lost 40% of their second halves. Despite their similar points-based form, Modena's advantage in the opening stages and Empoli's weaker defence, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match, provide the strongest support for the HT/FT 1/1 scenario: the hosts to lead at the break and secure the final victory.