Monopoli vs Crotone: match statistics

Monopoli have been clearly more effective in their last five matches: they earned 4 points? No, the hosts won 2 matches, drew twice and lost only once, while Crotone failed to win, recording 2 draws and 3 defeats. At home, Monopoli have a perfect record of two wins, average 1.5 goals scored and have yet to concede, contrasting with Crotone, who score only 0.5 goals per away match and have not won any game. The visitors enjoy more possession, averaging 59%, and create chances worth 1.55 xG compared with Monopoli’s 1.13 xG, but their shot conversion rate is just 3%, against 15% for the hosts. Crotone have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, while Monopoli have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home games. Therefore, home advantage and greater efficiency favour the hosts. However, the low scoring output of both teams increases the likelihood of a closely contested, low-scoring result.

The signal for BTTS - No is primarily driven by both teams’ low scoring efficiency: Monopoli averages 0.67 goals, while Crotone averages just 0.50. Over their last five matches, the BTTS rate was only 20% for Monopoli and 40% for Crotone, well below the league average of 52%. Monopoli conceded just 0.4 goals per match during this period, limiting the chances of the visitors, who averaged 0.6 goals across their last five appearances. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the season data so far, but Crotone’s shot conversion is very poor at 3%, compared with 4% for the hosts. The higher xG figures—1.97 for Monopoli and 1.55 for Crotone—suggest goal-scoring opportunities, but the teams’ finishing efficiency and recent results more strongly support a scenario in which at least one side fails to score.

The scoring data clearly points to a low goal total: none of Monopoli’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while this occurred only once in Crotone’s last five games. In league competition, Crotone have seen 100% of their matches finish under 2.5 goals, compared with 67% for Monopoli, while the teams have scored an average of just 0.67 and 0.50 goals respectively. Recent form has also been defensive, with Monopoli conceding an average of 0.4 goals per match across their last five appearances, while both teams combined have scored only 1.4 goals per game during this period. Although the average xG figures stand at 1.97 for the home side and 1.55 for the visitors, very low shot-conversion rates of 4% and 3% respectively limit the chances of a high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line offers the greatest value, as even with an expected-goals estimate of around 2.05, the scenario of four or more goals remains unlikely.

Monopoli are showing significantly better current form, averaging 1.6 points over their last five matches compared with Crotone’s 0.4, with the visitors failing to win any of those games. The hosts were leading at the break in three of their last five appearances, while Crotone have not held a half-time lead in any of them and were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches. Monopoli have conceded only 0.2 goals before half-time recently, whereas the visitors have failed to score in this phase, further supporting the scenario of a home lead at the break. After half-time, Crotone concede an average of 1.0 goal across their last five matches, while over the season their away defence has allowed opponents an average of 1.0 goal. Although Monopoli’s finishing has been limited, their xG stands at 1.97 compared with Crotone’s 1.55, making it most likely that the hosts will maintain their lead until the final whistle.