Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama: match statistics

Yokohama enter the match as the league’s second-placed team and boast an excellent record over their last five games: 5 wins, 11 goals scored and only 3 conceded. Montedio Yamagata have won 2 of their 5 matches during this period, while three defeats and a 6:5 goal difference clearly indicate less consistent form. However, the hosts are dangerous at home, where they won their only match so far, scored 2 goals and posted an xG of 2.18, slightly higher than Yokohama’s 2.04 away from home. The visitors do, however, average 21 shots per match away from home compared with the hosts’ 19, while their xG against stands at 1.27 versus Montedio’s 1.57, indicating better defensive control. Both teams have kept clean sheets in their home or away matches so far, but Yokohama’s run of five consecutive victories gives them the edge in the prediction.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Montedio have averaged 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches and Yokohama 2.2, with BTTS rates of 40% and 60%, respectively. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet in the available season data, while their latest xG against stands at 1.60, which favors a goal from an in-form Yokohama side. On the other hand, Yokohama have conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches and have an average xG conceded of 1.08, so the risk of Montedio failing to score remains significant. Despite the visitors’ defensive strength, the hosts have generated 1.76 xG in their last five matches and average 5 shots on target, giving them a realistic chance of finding the breakthrough. BTTS - Yes is marginally preferable, but the edge over the scenario in which at least one team fails to score remains small.

Yokohama are in excellent form, having won their last five matches and averaging 2.2 goals scored, while Montedio concede an average of 1.0 goal. In their last five games, the hosts created chances worth 1.76 xG, while Yokohama’s defense allowed opponents 1.08 xG, which still gives Montedio a realistic chance of scoring. The visitors generate as much as 1.70 xG per match, while the home side’s defense allows opponents 1.60 xG, so they should significantly increase the game’s goal-scoring potential. In 80% of Yokohama’s last five appearances, the total exceeded 2.5 goals, but the visitors’ solid defense, having conceded just 3 goals, reduces confidence in a higher line. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 2.60 goals comfortably clears this line, while both teams have scored a combined 17 goals in their last five matches.

Yokohama are showing significantly better current form, having won all of their last five matches, while Montedio Yamagata have suffered three defeats during that period. The visitors have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per match, compared with 1.2 and 1.0 respectively for the hosts. Yokohama’s advantage is already evident before half-time, as they led at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Montedio. After the break, the visitors average 1.2 goals, while the hosts manage just 0.4, with Montedio conceding as many as 1.0 goal per match in this period. Although the hosts won their only previous home meeting 3–1, Yokohama’s current run, higher xG of 2.04 compared with 1.36, and average of 21 shots per match primarily support a Yokohama lead at half-time and a final victory.