Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok: match statistics

Jagiellonia Białystok is the clear favorite — they rank 1st in the data and in the last 5 matches have a record of 4 wins and 1 draw (4-1-0) with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. Motor Lublin, 9th in the table, also scored 9 goals in their last five matches but won only 1 of 5 (1-2-2) and conceded as many as 10 goals, leaving them with a negative goal difference of -1. The gap in efficiency is confirmed by points: Motor averages 1.0 point per game over the last 5 matches, while Jagiellonia averages 2.6 points per game. The visitors’ key advantage is defense — 4 goals conceded in five matches versus the hosts’ 10 conceded, which significantly reduces the risk of a rout by Motor. On this basis I predict a Jagiellonia win; proposed probabilities are 65% for the away win, 20% for a draw and 15% for the home win.

I back BTTS - Yes. The primary argument is the league’s high incidence of matches with both teams scoring (63%) combined with recent xG and goal signals. In the last 5 matches Motor averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 2.0 (9 scored, 10 conceded), while Jagiellonia averages 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded (9 scored, 4 conceded), indicating Motor is more vulnerable defensively and the visitors have genuine attacking potential. xG supports this: Jagiellonia last5 xG_for 1.93 versus Motor xG_against 2.14, and Motor last5 xG_for 1.47 versus Jagiellonia xG_against 1.69 — both teams create and allow chances, which favors Goal/Goal. Against this stand season-long figures: Motor has 100% clean sheets at home and 0% season BTTS, and there are no season data for the visitors (values 0%), but these season stats look like a small sample and contradict the last-5 form. Given the weight of xG signals and the league-level 63%, I estimate BTTS probability at ~65% and No Goal at 35%, so I pick BTTS - Yes.

The combined xG from the last 5 matches is 1.47 for Motor and 1.93 for Jagiellonia, yielding expected goals ≈3.40 (1.47+1.93). Motor scored 9 and conceded 10 in their last 5 matches (averages 1.8 and 2.0), while Jagiellonia scored 9 and conceded 4 (averages 1.8 and 0.8), indicating Jagiellonia’s attacking edge against a vulnerable Motor defense. Additionally, Motor averages 11 shots with 4 on target per game, the league average is 2.25 goals per match and 63% of fixtures exceed 2.5; Motor had 80% of their last 5 matches over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of a higher total. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (very high confidence, hence the Over 1.5 recommendation), while Over 2.5 also looks likely (estimated ~70%). Over 3.5 is possible, but the total xG=3.40 is slightly below that line, so I assess Over 3.5 as less certain than Under 3.5.

The primary signal comes from Jagiellonia: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) while Motor has won 1 of 5 (20%). Jagiellonia led at the break in 60% of these fixtures and average 1.0 goals in the first half while conceding 0.4; Motor averages 0.8 first-half goals and concedes 1.2. The visitors collect an average 2.6 points per match over the last 5 games versus Motor’s 1.0, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead through to full-time. Although Motor has an xG of 1.4 against an xG conceded of 1.57 and records an average of 4.0 shots on target and 1.0 second-half goals in the last 5 matches (providing a realistic chance of a turnaround), the strongest numerical signal indicates that Jagiellonia is most likely to lead at half-time and win the match (HT/FT 2/2).