MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: match statistics
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
MSV Duisburg played Hoffenheim II in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
MSV Duisburg: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Hoffenheim II: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
MSV Duisburg scores 1.79 and concedes 1.30 goals per match. Hoffenheim II scores 1.82 and concedes 1.79. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: MSV Duisburg 64%, Hoffenheim II 76%. Over 2.5: MSV Duisburg 64%, Hoffenheim II 70%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Hoffenheim II has higher xG: 1.67 vs 1.52. MSV Duisburg: 12.4 shots per match, Hoffenheim II: 13.4.
Match halves
MSV Duisburg: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.03. Hoffenheim II: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.85.
Goals by minute
MSV Duisburg: 76-90+ (14 goals). Hoffenheim II: 0-15 (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
MSV Duisburg has a clear home advantage: they win 75% of matches at their stadium, average 2.13 goals scored and concede only 1.00 per game, resulting in a +18 goal difference in home fixtures. Hoffenheim II struggle away — they concede 1.94 goals on average, record 50% losses on the road and have managed only 1 win in their last 5 matches, yielding 1.0 point per game in that period. Both teams can score (Duisburg 59 goals this season, Hoffenheim II 60) and have similar attacking xG (home xG 1.68 vs away xG 1.63), but the visitors have higher xG against (1.82 vs 1.32), which confirms their weaker defense. Duisburg register more shots on target at home (5.88 vs 5.63), have a lower share of goalless games (6% vs 13%) and better form over the last 5 matches (1.8 pts vs 1.0 pts for Hoffenheim II), so efficiency and defensive organization favor the hosts. Consequently, I tip an MSV Duisburg win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have very high season BTTS rates: MSV Duisburg 76% and Hoffenheim II 75%, clearly above the league average of 64%, indicating a strong likelihood of Goal/Goal. Hoffenheim II concedes 1.94 goals per game on average (59 goals conceded) with xG against 1.82, while Duisburg at home generates xG 1.72 and scores 1.65 on average, so both sides create and allow scoring opportunities. In the last 5 fixtures both teams have BTTS at 60% and in their last 5 matches Duisburg scored 8 and conceded 8 goals, Hoffenheim II scored 7 and conceded 7, which confirms a pattern of goal exchange. Low clean sheet expected rates (18% for Duisburg and 13% for Hoffenheim II) and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals, especially 81% for Hoffenheim II, further increase the probability of both teams scoring. Based on this I assign an 82% probability to BTTS = Yes and 18% to BTTS = No, so the recommended pick is "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals (xG) are 1.77 for MSV Duisburg and 1.54 for Hoffenheim II, totaling 3.31 — calculated as the average of offensive xG (1.72 for Duisburg, 1.63 for Hoffenheim II) and xG conceded by opponents (1.82 and 1.45). With total xG = 3.31, a Poisson model yields ~84% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~64% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~42% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal data support this picture: Over 1.5 occurs for the home side in 82% of matches and for the away side in 88%, and both teams score in 76% and 75% of appearances respectively, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, average shots on target 5.88 vs 5.63 and conversion rates 12% (Duisburg) vs 16% (Hoffenheim II), as well as goals scored this season 59 vs 60, suggest both teams create and convert chances. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (side: Over) at about 84% probability, while Over 2.5 (~64%) and Over 3.5 (~42%) are less convincing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hoffenheim II led at the break in 6 of 16 matches (38%), while MSV Duisburg led in only 3 of 17 (18%), providing a clear signal of the visitors’ advantage after 45 minutes. The visitors average 1.13 goals by half-time versus 0.82 for the home side, and over the season they average 2.00 goals scored compared to MSV’s 1.65, which increases the probability of maintaining a lead. Although the hosts have slightly higher xG (1.72 vs 1.63), Hoffenheim II exhibit higher finishing efficiency (16% vs 12%) and a better season win rate (38% vs 29%), so an overall victory for the visitors is more likely. Additionally, the high percentage of matches with both teams scoring (76% for the hosts and 75% for the visitors) and the fact that at least one goal is scored in the second half in 82% of home matches and 81% of away matches suggest a goal-filled second half and preservation of the visitors’ lead. On this basis the strongest signal is 2/2 (visitors leading at half-time and winning the match).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| MSV Duisburg | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
MSV Duisburg is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - MSV Duisburg · 1 pts / match - Hoffenheim II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.3 goals / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.79 goals / match - Hoffenheim II
MSV Duisburg scores in 79% of matches (26 of 33 matches), while Hoffenheim II keeps a clean sheet in 15% (5 of 33 matches).
Hoffenheim II scores in 88% of matches (29 of 33 matches), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 30% (10 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
Over / Under - Hoffenheim II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - MSV Duisburg · 1.24 pts / match - Hoffenheim II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hoffenheim II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
MSV Duisburg
Hoffenheim II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| MSV Duisburg | Liga | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.09 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.61 |
| Both teams scored | • 64% | 64% | ▲ 76% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 64% | 63% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 21% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 77% | ▲ 85% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 83% | • 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- MSV DuisburgYellow cardDominik Becker
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: MSV Duisburg 0 - 0 - 1 Hoffenheim II. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
The 3. Liga match finished MSV Duisburg 3:1 Hoffenheim II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
MSV Duisburg score 1.79 goals per game on average and Hoffenheim II 1.82. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 64% of MSV Duisburg's matches and 76% of Hoffenheim II's.
What form are MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II in?
Over the last 5 games MSV Duisburg have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Hoffenheim II 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.